文档介绍：For office use only Team Control Number For office use only
T1 ________________ 34896 F1 ________________
T2 ________________ F2 ________________
T3 ________________ F3 ________________
Problem Chosen
T4 ________________ F4 ________________
A
2015
Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM) Summary Sheet
Summary
In 2014 Ebola broke out in West Africa and became the most severe epidemic on record.
Moreover, with time going by, Ebola almost swept the area. Based on above background, we
set the lowest mortality as the objective to explore the methods against the Ebola.
Considering the extent of spread and risk of the epidemic, We establish the simulation
region based on Monte Carlo Method and set the initial outbreak conditions which are
adjustable .Through the MATLAB simulation, we analyzed the different degrees of the
outbreak under the condition of providing no precautions, merely isolation, merely
treatment and both isolation and treatment. The lowest mortality rate occurred in the fourth
case. According to the simulation results, we believe that these measures such as
compulsory isolation, thorough security check of immigration, emigration and freight
transport can reduce the infection rate and mortality rate in the outbreak area
We perform sensitivity test for model 1 and draw the 3D image of the infection rate as
well as the cure rate by using Interpolation Method. When the corresponding conditions are
met, we can get the infection rate and cure rate of region in three dimensional images
according to the population density and the perpendicular distance between the treatment
center and the infected individual potential outbreak areas.
Combined with the actual conditio