文档介绍：摘要
我国国债规模呈现出迅猛扩张的势头其发行量对国民经济运行的影响越来越
明显也日益受到全社会的普遍关注
本文采用规范分析与实证分析相结合定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法从
以下几方面着手研究透析中国国债规模揭示现有规模的形成原因使用协
整模型评价现有国债规模提出控制中国国债规模风险的具体政策建议
本文发现在货币政策失灵实施积极财政赤字财政的宏观背景下为拉动
经济增长国债规模的膨胀是当然的结果我国经济建设资金的短缺则为国债规模
的进一步扩张提供了现实需求市场微弱的挤出效应较强的应债能力较低的或
有财政风险则是我国国债规模扩张的内在保证这使得我国在国债规模扩张的同时
有效控制了相应的财政风险
在因素分析的基础上通过GRANGER因果关系检验从中挑选出国债发行规模
的GRANGER原因再应用协整理论对国债发行规模及选择出的影响变量进行单位根
检验和协整关系检验建立协整方程和短期误差修正模型通过分析得出影响我
国国债规模最关键的因素是GDP增量居民储蓄规模而且我国国债规模与GDP增
量居民储蓄规模存在正相关这表明尽管我国国债规模扩张较快但这是伴随
着我国经济规模扩大而产生的并且相应的城乡居民储蓄总量也大幅提高这又
进一步说明我国国债规模仍然是控制在一个适度的区间内且能基本保证国民经
济的可持续发展
尽管我国国债目前风险较低本文还是本着谨慎的原则就怎样进一步降低我
国国债规模的风险提出了系列政策建议

关键词国债规模膨胀格兰杰因果检验协整分析

I
ABSTRACT
China's government bond expands quickly, whose scale influence the Economic
profoundly. Hence it is concerned by the whole society gradually.
The bines the normative analysis and the positive analysis together, using
qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The research is focused on such aspects
Revealing the reasons for China's government bond scale expanding through analyzing
China's practice. Reviewing the government bond scale by setting up the cointegration
equation model. Putting forward the relevant policy mendations to reduce the
risk of China's government bond.
The paper points out that under the macroeconomic background, the ary
policy not working and the government implementing active financial policies, the
shortage of the China's infrastructure made up the market. The government bond scale
works under low financial risk because of a faint effect of crowding out, the strong
capability to paying off the debt and the low potential financial risk.
Through Granger causality test, the paper chooses the GRANGER causes. So the
paper sets up the cointegration equation model and Error Correction Model. The models
indicate that the key factors to influence the scale of China's government bond scale are
GDP increment and scale of personal deposits. The