文档介绍：CHAPTER 5 Probability: Review of Basic Concepts
to pany
Introduction to Business Statistics
fourth edition, by Ronald M. Weiers
Presentation by Priscilla Chaffe-Stengel
Donald N. Stengel
© 2002 The Wadsworth Group
Chapter 5 - Learning Objectives
Construct and interpret a contingency table
Frequencies, relative frequencies & cumulative relative frequencies
Determine the probability of an event.
Construct and interpret a probability tree with sequential events.
Use Bayes’ Theorem to revise a probability.
Determine the number binations or permutations of n objects r at a time.
© 2002 The Wadsworth Group
Chapter 5 - Key Terms
Experiment
Sample space
Event
Probability
Odds
Contingency table
Venn diagram
Union of events
Intersection of plement
Mutually exclusive events
Exhaustive events
Marginal probability
Joint probability
Conditional probability
Independent events
Tree diagram
Counting
binations
© 2002 The Wadsworth Group
Chapter 5 - Key Concepts
The probability of a single event falls between 0 and 1.
The probability of plement of event A, written A’, is
P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
The law of large numbers: Over a large number of trials, the relative frequency with which an event occurs will approach the probability of its occurrence for a single trial.
© 2002 The Wadsworth Group
Chapter 5 - Key Concepts
Odds vs. probability
If the probability event A occurs is , then the odds in favor of event A occurring are a to b – a.
Example: If the probability it will rain tomorrow is 20%, then the odds it will rain are 20 to (100 – 20), or 20 to 80, or 1 to 4.
Example: If the odds an event will occur are 3 to 2, the probability it will occur is
© 2002 The Wadsworth Group
Chapter 5 - Key Concepts
Mutually exclusive events
Events A and B are
mutually exclusive if both cannot occur at the same time, that is, if their intersection is empty. In a Venn diagram, mutually exclusive events are usually shown as nonintersecting areas. If intersecting areas are shown, they are e