文档介绍：基于灰色模型的港口吞吐量预测学院专业班级学号姓名指导教师负责教师 20 12年 6月沈阳航空航天大学毕业设计(论文) I 摘要国际航运市场是一个竞争激烈、环境多变的市场,同时又是一个特殊风险的产业。世界政治事件、经济波动、自然因素等都会影响国际航运市场的行情,增加港口吞吐量的经营风险。因此深刻分析港口吞吐量变化,寻找航运市场的规律,在激烈竞争的国际航运市场中掌握主动,对航运业的经营和发展具有极为重要的意义。灰色预测通过对原始数据的处理和灰色模型的建立,发现和掌握系统发展规律, 对系统的未来状态做出科学的定量预测。本文对近年来港口吞吐量预测及港口的发展情况、相互关系进行了定性分析,并以宁波港客运量和中国铁矿石的进口量为例,利用灰色预测模型对其进行预测,预测结果显示,灰色预测能较好的反映出吞吐量变化趋势。灰色预测模型对港口管理者在变化莫测的市场中制定合理的经营策略,改善港口基础设施,营造良好的经营环境,加速港口物流服务链的搭建,提高服务作业效率和营运管理水平具有一定的辅助作用。关键词:港口吞吐量;灰色系统理论;预测; GM(1,1) 模型基于灰色模型的港口吞吐量预测 II Application of Grey Model f or the Prediction of Port Throughput Abstract International shipping market isone market with petition, complicated environment, and special risks. Political events, economical changes, and natural factors all cause different effect upon the trend of ports ’ throughput , and then increase the operating risks of the throughput of the por t. Therefore it is very important for the operating and development of international dry bulk industry to analyze the changes ini nternational shipping market and get the rules of market development. Based ong rey processing on raw data and gray model, grey prediction can discover s the development law master system, and the future state of the system to make quantitative predictions of science. In this paper, the passenger of Ningbo port and China's iron ore imports are used to test the gray prediction model . The results show that the g rey prediction model can reflect the trend of shipping market. Grey prediction model can guide the port managers to adapt to the vagaries of the market . It can be used to get a reasonable business strategy supporting , and speed up the port logistics service chain, improve service levels of operational efficiency and operational management in throughput of the port planning . 沈阳航空航天大学毕业设计(论文) III 目录 1绪论.................................................................................................................................... 1 论文研究的背景...........................................