文档介绍：Augur: a Decentralized, Open-Source Platform for Prediction Markets
Dr. Jack Peterson & Joseph Krug
Augur is a trustless, decentralized platform for prediction markets. It is an extension of Bitcoin
Core’s source code which preserves as much of Bitcoin’s proven code and security as possible. Each
feature required for prediction markets is constructed from Bitcoin’s input/output-style transactions.
I. INTRODUCTION TradeSports – over the past decade has shown, if govern-
ments or special interest groups want to shut down a web-
A prediction market is a place where individuals can site, they will find a way: InTrade, after all, was an Irish
wager on the outcomes of future events. Those who fore- company, shut down as a result of the . Commodity
cast the outcome correctly win money, and if they fore- Futures Trading Commissions actions [5, 6]. Even the
cast incorrectly, they lose money. People value money, so Defense Advanced Research Project Agency and Central
they are incentivized to forecast such outcomes as accu- Intelligence Agency were forced to end their foray into
rately as they can. Thus, the price of a prediction market prediction markets as a result of Congressional interfer-
can serve as an excellent indicator of how likely an event ence [7].
is to occur [1, 2]. Augur is a decentralized platform for Contrast this with the history of Bitcoin [8]. Bitcoin
prediction markets. is a cryptographic currency and payment platform that
Our goal here is to provide a blueprint of a decentral- has found an enemy in powerful nation-states and finan-
ized prediction market using Bitcoin’s input/output-style cial institutions. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has thrived: as
transactio