文档介绍：中南民族大学硕士学位论文
摘要
人民币升值是现在经济领域最热门的话题之一。对于人民币币值的低估,导致了诸
如楼市、股市的过热,外汇储备、贸易顺差居高不下等一系列问题的产生。从 1994 年
的汇率改革到 2004 年,人民币的汇率一直保持在 1 美元兑换元左右,处于一种相
对稳定的状态。然而 2005 年以后,人民币开始升值,但这仅仅是个开始。那么人民币
的这种长期升值趋势必将影响我国的国家总体竞争力、国际地位和经济利益。
本文首先运用汇率制度选择的相关理论对人民币汇率制度进行了分析,并在理论上
论证了我国目前既不能继续实行盯住美元的单一汇率制度,也不能实行市场浮动的汇率
制度,而应该实行渐进的有管理的浮动汇率制度,并创造条件实现完全市场浮动汇率制
度。
其次在对汇率决定理论进行评述的基础上,探讨了我国目前人民币升值的原因和长
期升值的趋势。本文从外部因素(主要是来自国外政治和舆论的压力)和内部因素(外
汇储备持续扩大、国际收支长期顺差、经济增长率世界领先、国际游资投机套利和国内
利率不断调整)两方面,分析了人民币升值的原因并预测出人民币升值的长期趋势。
最后在描述了我国目前保险业发展的现状的基础上,分析了人民币升值对我国保险
业的短期的影响(主要是外汇保单和涉外业务)和中长期影响(主要是长期供给和需求),
进而提出一些应对具体措施和建议(主要是通过金融创新和管理创新)来规避汇率风险。

关键词:人民币升值;汇率机制;汇率;保险业发展

I
人民币升值及其对我国保险业发展的影响
Abstract
Nowadays, RMB appreciation es one of the fiercest issues in the world. A number
of problems, such as the overheated securities and real estate markets, excessive trade surplus
and foreign Exchange Reserves were caused due to the underestimating of RMB. From 1994
to 2004, RMB exchange ratio keeps in the level of yuan to 1 dollar on the static state.
Since 2005, RMB is about to appreciate, which will make a great impact on accelerating
China’s economy and improving our status petitive ability of the world in the long
term.
Firstly, this paper analyses the exchange rate system of RMB using the theory of the
exchange rate system selection, and demonstrates that our country shouldn't continue to
implement a fixed exchange rate Pegged to the dollar system or a market floating exehange
rate system currently. A gradual floating exehange rate system should be the best selection.
our country should implement the gradual managed floating exchange rate system and realize
plete market floating exchange rate system.
Secondly, we analyse the reason and long-term trend of RMB appreciation in our country,
based on reviewing the theory debates on exchage rate determinational theory . In the paper,
from the external factors including the pressure from public