文档介绍：北京交通大学硕士学位论文铁路集装箱运量预测系统研究姓名:王清校申请学位级别:硕士专业:交通运输规划与管理指导教师:郎茂祥 201106 中文摘要摘要:预测和计算机技术的发展,为科学预测铁路集装箱运量奠定了基础。虽然现有数学软件有的具有一定的预测功能,但预测方法简单、数据录入繁锁、界而不友好,难以满足快速和准确预测铁路集装箱运量的要求。因此,开发铁路集装箱运量预测系统对于提高集装箱运量预测精度和工作效率,提高铁路集装箱运输组织决策的科学化水平,进而提高铁路在集装箱运输市场中的竞争力具有重要意义。论文从社会经济发展水-甲、铁路自身运营组织和国家政策及科学技术等方面对影响铁路集装箱运量的因素进行了系统分析,确定了铁路集装箱运量预测的主要因素指标。通过分析各种时间序列预测方法、因果分析预测方法、现代预测方法和组合预测方法的特点和使用条件,确定了适用于铁路集装箱运量预测的模型并建立了预测模型库,同时建立了相应的检验模型库和模型属性库,分别用于检验预测模型的质量和为用户选择预测模型提供帮助。论文重点对铁路集装箱运量预测系统进行了总体设计,包括系统功能设计、预测流程设计、数据流程分析和数据结构设计、模型库设计和输入输出设计。论文还对实现数据管理、模型库管理和运量预测三大核心模块的关键技术和编程思想进行了详细说明,并以中铁集装箱运输有限责任公司的总运量预测为例对系统实现的功能进行了说明。关键词:集装箱运量;预测;模型库;系统设计分类号: ABSTRACT ABSTRACT:The development offorecasting puter foundation for forecasting railway container transport volume technology are the existing mathematical software have certain forecasting function,but there are some problems such as the simple forecasting method,large data-entry workload,and unfriendly interface,which cannot meet thedemand ofrapid and accurate forecasting of railway container transport volume Therefore,developing railway container transport volume forecasting system isespecially significant forimproving container transport volume forecasting precision and efficiency,improving railway container anization decision-making level and improving petitiveness forrailway transport incontainer shipping market. The influence factors on railway container transport volume were analyzed firstly based onthe socialeconomic development level,railway operation and national policy and science and analyzing thefeatures and application conditions of the time seriesforecasting methods,cause-and-effect analysis forecasting methods, modem forecasting methods binational forecasting methods,this paper established aforecasting model baseforrailway container transport volume,and also established thecorresponding testing model baseandmodel attributesbase,which were applied respectively for theprecision testing offorecasting