文档介绍：Empirical Analysis of Real Estate Investment Risk A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate:Cui Nana Supervisor:Prof. Luan Weidong Chang’an University, Xi’an, China i 摘要近几年随着国民经济的快速增长,房地产市场呈现出良好的发展态势,房地产业已成为国民经济中重要的基础性产业。但是,房地产投资是一项综合性、专业性、技术性极强的活动,同时也是一个高投入、高回报和高风险的产业,这些特征决定了它是不同于一般产品的投资,必须对房地产投资项目存在的风险进行透彻的分析和科学的防范。因此,只有在投资决策前,对项目进行周密细致的投资分析与评价并制定详细的可操作的风险防范措施,才能将投资风险控制在可预知的范围内,从而获得预计的投资回报。本文在充分了解国内外有关房地产投资风险分析理论研究的基础上,运用定性分析和定量分析相结合、理论与实际相结合的方法,使用盈亏平衡分析模型与模糊综合评价模型,对西安市贝斯特·新阳光时代广场项目进行投资风险分析,并寻找出有效降低和防范项目投资风险的合理方法。通过市场调查尽可能获得更多更详细的信息,进行可行性分析和研究,降低不确定性因素带来的影响;拓宽融资渠道,多方面选择项目开发资金的来源,降低对银行融资的依赖;加强市场监测,通过建立区域房地产景气分析和监测系统来降低风险;聘请经验丰富的监理单位以及高素质、高管理水平的管理人员进行项目管理,降低项目的不确定性,减少项目投入成本,从而减少及控制风险;按照不确定性分析中的风险因素建立风险预警体系,随时掌握各种相关信息,及时调整项目风险预案,从而实现对各种风险的超前预测和及时预防;制定有效的销售战略,组建完善的售后服务体系,树立企业的良好形象。关键词:房地产投资;风险分析;模糊综合评价法;风险防范 ii Abstract Along with the fast growth of the national economy, the real estate market also presents good development situation in recent years, and also the real estate already es a foundational industry in the national economy. However, the real estate investment is an activity which is strong in synthesize, profession and technique, at the same time also is an enterprise with high investment, high repayment and high risk. These characteristics cause that real estate industry is different with other product investments. We have to carry on a thorough analysis and science guard to the existent risk in real estate investment project. Therefore, careful and detailed investment analysis and evaluation, formulation of practical risk prevention measures shall be arranged prior to investment in order to keep the investment risks within the known field, thus substantial return can be guaranteed. Based on recognizing adequately theory and practice of real estate investment risk analysis both hereand abroad, author used the method bining qualities analysis with