文档介绍：Dangerous Markets: Managing in Financial Crises
2003 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland
January 24, 2003
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the anization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not plete record of the discussion.
OVERVIEW
There will be increasing volatility in the global financial system and more financial crises over the next 5 years
1.
2.
Executives in both the private and public sectors can do much more to foresee these major events, prepare for them, and in fact thrive in crises and volatile times
3.
There are an increasingly large number of global and emerging panies that have learned how to thrive in these volatile situations. eeding requires advanced preparation, understanding 5 new degrees of strategic freedom that occur during crises, and capturing new opportunities and options
4.
There are some major storm clouds on the horizon: Japan, China, and Germany to name just a few
5.
To minimize and prevent future crises, the private sector – especially investors and financial intermediaries – must “step up” and play a more proactive role in strengthening the global financial system.
1
INCREASING VOLATILITY AND INCIDENCE OF CRISES –THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS IN TRANSITION
High barriers to interaction
Fragmented, local market and industry structures
Relatively self-contained national economies
Relatively self-contained social/political tension
More decision makers – billions of individual decisions by consumers, laborers, producers, and investors
Faster transaction/response times (., technology, media)
More interconnected/linked world (., interest rates, stock indices)
Liberalization
Mobility of capital
Digital world
Global forces at work
Common standards
1990
2020?
Fully integrated global economy