文档介绍：中用通货紧缩的成因及对策分析摘要摘要 1997年下半年开始,中国零售物价指数(RPI)、消费物价指数(CPI) 先后出现负增长,此次物价下跌持续时间之久,范围之广,在历史上是少见的,也因此预示着在此之前同样少见的通货紧缩的来临。本文用宏观经济学的视角分析了中国通货紧缩的成因及治理对策, 指出通货紧缩的成因在于总供求的失衡,主要表现为供给的绝对过剩和供给的相对过剩。供给的绝对过剩是由于“八五”期间盲目投资、重复建设造成的,投资是总需求的构成部分,但投资一经建成即表现为供给, 且供给具有刚性,加之进口的增加形成供给过剩。供给相对过剩实际上是有效需求不足,有效需求不足主要表现为消费需求不足、投资需求不足和净出口需求不足。关于通货紧缩的治理,本文用IS—LM模型并结合中国的政策实践来论证财政与货币政策对治理通货紧缩的有效性,同时指出财政与货币政策施行过程中还有很多不足之处值得反思,尤其是受美国经济衰退的影响,中国推动经济增长的动力更要依靠内需。因此文章的最后建议今后的政策取向是,在制度完善的基础上,继续推行积极的财政政策和相机抉择的货币政策。关键词:通货紧缩成因财政政策货币政策!里望塑茎堕塑壁塑墨堕堕坌堑——一竺!!竺! Abstract Since thesecondhalfofl997,China'sRetail PriceIndex andConsumerPrice Index begun to see negmive growth along and massive decline of Drices is rare intheeconomic history ofChina,which alsoindicates the salnc rare deflation ing. This dissertationanalyses the causes ofdeflation andcountermeasures ofcontrolling thedeflationfromtheangle ofmacroeconomics. The causes ofdeflation lieinunbalance ofaggregate supply and demand,which is characterized by absolute absolute surplus results from theblind investment,repeated construction and therapid growth inimport during eight five—year plan relativesurplUS actually isshortage of effective demand,which ischaracterized by the shortage ofconsumer demand, investment demand and export. As bine IS—LM model witllchina’Spolicy practice to attestthe effectof fiscaland ary policies intackling deflation. Meanwhile,the authorpoint out thereare alotof defect in current policy practice, Especially affectedby theslack inthe USA economic growth,China should depend on expanding domestic demand topromote economic atthe end ofthe dissertation,the authorpropose theorientation ofthe policies should be tocatty out positive fiscalpolicyand discretionary ary policy on the basis ofsystem perfection. Key words:Deflation Cause FiscalPolicy ary Policy 导论第一章导论本章介绍论文研究的背景及意义,以及论文研究思路和方法。第一节论文研究的背景及意义 1996—1997年初,中国经济成功实现“软着陆”,得到国际、国内的普遍认可。,自19