文档介绍：非寿险保险合同准备金计量方法
中国保监会 2021年3月
背景：国际背景与国内背景
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主要内容
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测算方法与测算结果
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目录
具体的测算方法与流程
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4
容：赔款、保单维持本钱、保单理赔费用
反映货币的时间价值；
包含明确的边际。
二、内容：对未来现金流无偏估计的理解
?Preliminary Views on Insurance Contracts? paragraph 34
In summary, the Board’s preliminary view is that an insurer should, in measuring insurance liabilities, make estimates of future cash flows that:
(a) are explicit. (paragraph 35)
(b) …
(c) incorporate, in an unbiased way, all available information about the amount, timing and uncertainty of all cash flows arising from the contractual obligations. (paragraphs 39–43)
(d)…
(e)…
二、内容：对未来现金流无偏估计的理解
Unbiased estimate
the Board’s preliminary view is that the measurement should start with an estimate of the expected present value of the cash flows generated by the contract. The expected present value is the probability-weighted average of the present value of the cash flows.
IASB?初步意见?中明确提出“无偏估计是基于各种可能情况的加权平均结果，而不是最可能出现的结果〞。
二、内容：对未来现金流无偏估计的理解
最正确估计的概念
IAS 37 “The best estimate of the expenditure required to settle the present obligation is the amount that an entity would rationally pay to settle the obligation at the end of the reporting period or to transfer it to a third party at that time.〞
IAS37 最正确估计是保险人在报告期末合理处理负债所需要准备的金额。
二、内容：对未来现金流无偏估计的理解
最正确估计的概念
IAS 37 第38条 “The estimates of outcome and financial effect are determined by the judgement of the management of the entity, supplemented by experience of similar transactions and, in some cases, reports from independent experts. The evidence considered includes any additional evidence provided by events after the reporting period.〞
IAS 37 第39条 Uncertainties surrounding the amount to be recognised as a provision are dealt with by various means according to the circumstances. Where the provision being measured involves a large population of items, the obligation is estimated by weighting all possible outcomes by their associated probabilities. The name for this statistical method of