文档介绍：Analysing disruptive potential: the
case of wireless local work
and munications
panies
Stefan Hu¨sig1, Christiane Hipp2 and
Michael Dowling3
1Department of Innovation and Technology Management, University of Regensburg, 93040
Regensburg, Germany. stefan.******@-
2Vodafone Pilotentwicklung GmbH, Vodafone Group R&D Germany, Chiemgaustrae 116, 81549
Mu¨nchen, Germany. christiane.******@v-
3Department of Innovation and Technology Management, University of Regensburg, 93040
Regensburg, Germany. michael.******@-
In this article, we analyse the prediction that wireless local work (W-LAN)
technologies will be disruptive for incumbent work operators.
For this purpose, we develop a methodology of guided interviews to assess technologies for
their disruptive characteristics based on theory of disruptive technology developed by
Christensen (1997) and recent extensions. The application of prehensive step-by-
step method improves the precision of the disruptive technology concept and its usability for
practitioners to make ex ante distinctions between disruptive technologies and other
phenomena caused by emerging technologies. Our method predicts that contrary mon
assumptions, W-LAN is not likely to represent a disruptive technology for the established
work firms in terms of Christensen’s concept. This research was
conducted in close collaboration with Vodafone Pilotentwicklung, an R&D and technology
monitoring unit of the Vodafone Group. Vodafone provided part of the empirical data through
expert interviews and market reports.
1. Introduction and overview for a mobile changed from euphoria to
defeatism, the Cassandras among the prophets
he well-known saying, ‘The art of prophecy is claimed that the emergence of new wireless tech-
T very difficult, especially with respect to the nologies would threaten projects like universal
future’,1 has not lost its validity. The numerous mobile municatio