文档介绍：全国电力市场分析预测年度报告
摘要:2008 年是我凡的一年,也是我国经济发展比较困难的一年。在克服年初冰
灾、“”地震等重大自然灾害,应对美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融动荡以及一系列复
杂多变的国际经济形势下,国民经济增速明显回落,全社会用电量高位回落。
2008 年我国经济增长 %,增速同比回落 4 个百分点;全社会用电增长 %,增速同
比回落 个百分点。2008 年 1~8 月,尽管电力供应能力快速增长,但受电煤供应不足和
冰灾、地震等因素影响,全国电力供需紧张状况有所加剧。9 月份之后,由于世界经济和我
国经济的进一步回调,全国电力供需形势明显好转。
2009 年可能是新世纪以来我国经济发展最困难的一年,外贸形势严峻,经济增长将主
要依靠投资和消费拉动。预计 2009 年全国经济增长将继续回落,全年增速在 %左右。全
国全社会用电量达到 ~ 万亿千瓦时,增长 3%~5%左右。2009 年,全衡,其中华东、南方电网供需平衡,华北、华中、东北、西北电网电力供需富余。受来水
不确定性因素影响,局部地区高峰时段电力供需偏紧。
预计 2010 年经济增速将略有回升,增长 9%左右。全国全社会用电量将达到 ~
万亿千瓦时,增长 7~9%。 2010 年全衡,
华北、华中、东北、西北电网电力富裕。
关键词:金融危机;经济发展;电力供需;分析;预测
课题负责人:顾宇桂
课题组成员:顾宇桂单葆国韩新阳郭利杰吴鹏陈磊代红才徐敏杰谭显东
The Annual Report of National Electric Power Supply/Demand Analysis
and Prediction
Abstract:The year 2008 is extraordinary for China, and also a difficult year for China's
economic growth. After conquer the ice disaster, "" earthquake, we must face the
further impact of the financial crisis brought by US subprime mortgage crisis and the
complex international situation. China's economic growth has slacked, and the increase of
total sumption was slower.
The national GDP was increased by 9% with the growth rate decreased by 4 percentage
points, and the total electricity consumption growth rate was %, decreased by
percentage point. Alough the supply capacity growth was fast, the most area in the
country had supply shortage due to the lack of coal, ice disaster and the earthquake, but
after Sep. the whole country had a balance between the power supply and demand
because the world economy and China's economy e down.
Perhaps year 2009 will be the most difficult year in the new century; the foreign trade
situation is serious, economic growth will depend more on investment and consumption
demand. In 2009, the annual GDP growth rate is predicted to around %. The total
electricity consumption is expected to reach 3533~3602 TW•h at a gro