文档介绍：1 决策建模与严格不确定决策问题?学习目标:(1)掌握两种常用的决策建模方法:?决策表?决策树(2)掌握五种严格不确定决策问题的决策准则:?1 .乐观准则?2. 悲观准则?3. Hurwitz准则?4. 等概率准则(Laplace)?5. 后悔值极小化极大(Savage)1 决策建模与严格不确定决策问题? 决策建模方法? 决策建模方法? Example: a decision problem? Modeling the decision with decision tree? Modeling the decision with pay-off table (or decision matrix)? Decision making under uncertainty? Decision making using probability Example: a decision problem?The Hewlett-Packard (HP) company specializes in assembling and selling PC systems for use by family doctor practices throughout the . pany is developing a new PC-based system. At present pany is trying to decide on the manufacturing and assembly process to be used. One aspect of this relates to the keyboard that will be used in the system, which will have specially labeled function keys. ?pany has decided that it faces three alternatives:?It can manufacture/assemble the keyboard itself.?It can buy the keyboards from a domestic manufacturer.?It can buy the keyboards from a manufacturer in the Far Example: a decision problem (continued)?The problem is that each of these options has different costs and benefits associated with it. ?To manufacture/assemble the keyboard itself, pany would require major investment in new production equipment as well as extensive training of the work force. It is felt that such an investment is only likely to be cost-effective if sales of the new product are particularly good.?Buying the keyboard from a domestic supplier will involve pany in less up-front expense and will be safer if large sales do not materialize in the future.?Buying from an overseas supplier offers better quality but with the risk of disruptions in supply if there are problems in the delivery Example: a decision problem (cont.)?Uncertainty in the decision problem?There is uncertainty as to which decision to take because there is uncertainty over future sale.?To help simplify the situation