文档介绍：系统名词解释、(System NOUN interpretation,)
System: a system is made up of two or more organic elements that interact with eacion on the creative imagination. 8, do not allow criticism or criticism of other people's assumptions. 9 do not obstruct others' assumptions in the form of collective or authoritative opinions. Put forward the idea, whether good or bad, will be recorded. Two basic principles: 1. Defer judgment 2, quantity provide quality.
Delphy Fa general work procedures: 1, determine the purpose of the investigation, draw up an outline of the investigation. 2, select a group of experienced and familiar with the topic of experts. 3 send questionnaires to each of the selected experts by means of communication. 4, after a round of Delphy activities, the original data or expert opinions summarized into a chart, feedback to the consulting experts, in a certain period of time recovery, in the summary analysis, and then to the next round of activities. So repeatedly, after three or four rounds of relatively focused opinions, data processing and synthesis, the results obtained.
Scenario analysis method: 1 establish information base. 2 identify topic goals. 3 analyze and construct the influence area. 4 determine the key variables that describe the impact area. 5 explore possible future trends. 6 select and explain environmental scenarios. 7 introduce emergency events and test their