文档介绍：The Bullwhip Effect
By: Shannon Reimer
What’s covered?
Bullwhip effect defined
Results of the bullwhip effect
Cts
Suppliers
Producers
Distributors
Retailers
Products & Services
Products & Services
Products & Services
Information
Cash
Key:
=
Inventory Levels
10 Units
10 Units
10 Units
10 Units
10 Units
10 Units
Retailers are selling product at a constant rate and price. Firms along the supply chain are able to set their inventory to meet demand.
Supply Chain Disrupted
Customer Demand forecast = 20 units
Suppliers
Producers
Distributors
Retailers
Products & Services
Products & Services
Products & Services
Information Flow
Cash Flow
Key:
=
Inventory Levels
160 Units
80 Units
40 Units
80 Units
40 Units
20 Units
As demand increases, the distributor decides to accommodate the forecasted demand and increase inventory to buffer against unforeseen problems in demand. Each step along the supply chain increases their inventory (double in this example) to accommodate demand fluctuations. The top of the supply chain receives the harshest impact of the whip effect.
Solving the Bullwhip dilemma
Improve communication along the supply chain.
Retailers notifying firms upstream of sales promotions will help clarify demand signals from consumers
Improved information will improve demand forecasts upstream in the supply chain.
Solving the Bullwhip dilemma - continued
Improve sources of forecast data
Firms can use data from Point of Sale computer systems to derive data from forecasting
Firms along the supply chain can use EDI systems to retrieve data on items that are legitimately being purchased by customers
Solving the Bullwhip dilemma - continued
Work with firms upstream and downstream in the supply chain
Create smaller order increments to decrease time between orders. Order processing will become closer to real-time.
Work to develop consistent pricing of products to avoid demand fluctuations from the sale of in