文档介绍：Stephen Girsky
IMF World Auto Council
June 2004
Morgan Stanley Research
The State of the Industry
Global demand growth continues to be modest, with the exception of selected emerging markets.
Excess capacity likely to continue, putting pressure on prices.
OEM strategies to counter deflation have been to cut costs and get the consumer to “buy up”.
Company updates
Questions
Morgan Stanley Research
Global Demand Growing at Slow Pace
Global Light Vehicle Demand
% CAGR
LMC-JD Power & Morgan Stanley Research
Morgan Stanley Global Sales Forecast FY04E
United States
Flat
Western Europe
+ 1%
Japan
+ 2%
China
+ 25%
2003A
2004E
% ∆
Units in MM
Morgan Stanley Research Estimates
Excess Capacity Estimated at 25-30%
Global Utilization at 72%
Autofacts
Global Excess Capacity is Significant
Honda contemplating importing small cars into . from Brazil
VW contemplating importing cars to Europe from Brazil
Honda to import cars to Europe from China
Ford/Toyota importing vehicles to Europe from Turkey
Morgan Stanley Research
OEMs Spending for Growth
13 of 14 OEMs had FY03 CapEx > D&A
BMW
Mazda
PSA
Ford
VW
DCX
GM
Company data & Morgan Stanley Research
Zero Sum Game
Slow growth and excess capacity suggest deflation/revenue pressures are likely to continue.
Not everybody can be a winner.
Winners will be low cost producers who deliver good product that consumers are willing to pay for.
Morgan Stanley Research
Capacity Situation Could Get Worse
Capacity Additions Over 1mm units
Ford (122)
Nissan 250
Toyota 180
Total 308
GM 125
Ford (48)
DCX 80
Honda 180
Nissan 200
Toyota 30
Total 567
Ford (211)
GM (98)
DCX 80
Hyundai 235
Total 6
Toyota 150
2003
2004
2005
2006
Company data & Morgan Stanley Research
Units in 000
Every 1 Pt. of Share Translates into $ in Profits
Units of Added Capacity is % of NA Capacity,
or $5-$6bn in Pretax Profits
Detroit Three
$3,143
. Pretax P