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# 贝恩－战略分析方法之一.ppt

BainMath
Inflation-
*1996isthebaseyear
Note:.
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BainMath
Inflation-
Tounderstandhowacompanyhasperformedovertime(.,intermsofrevenue,costs,orprofit),itisnecessarytoremoveinflation,().
Sincemostcompaniesusenominalfiguresintheirannualreports,ifyouareshowingtheclient’srevenueovertime,itispreferabletousenominalfigures.
Foranexperiencecurve,whereyouwanttounderstandhowpriceorcosthaschangedovertimeduetoaccumulatedexperience,youmustuserealfigures
Note:
:
Whetheryoushouldusereal(constant)figuresornominal(current)figuresdependsonthesituationandtheclient’spreference.
,youshouldalsonotewhatyouhavechosenasthebaseyear.
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BainMath
Inflation-Example(1)
(1970-1992)
,GE’%since1970.
Whenyouusenominaldollars,itisimpossibletotellhowmuchofthepriceincreasewasduetoinflation.
\$2,000
72
Nominaldollars
%
PriceofaGEWasher
1970
71
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
\$0
\$500
\$1,000
\$1,500
CAGR
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BainMath
Inflation-Example(2)
PriceofaGEWasher
CAGR
(1970-1992)
(%)
%
1970
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
\$0
\$500
\$1,000
\$1,500
\$2,000
\$2,500
\$3,000
Nominaldollars
Real(1992)dollars
Ifyouuserealdollars,youcanseewhathashappenedtoinflation-%peryear.
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BainMath
Inflation-Exercise(1)
Considerthefollowingrevenuestreaminnominaldollars:
Revenue(\$million)
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Howdowecalculatetherevenuestreaminrealdollars?
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BainMath
Inflation-Exercise(2)
Step1:,wewilluse1990
Step2:Finddeflatorsforallyears
(fromthedeflatortable):
(1990)=
(1991)=
(1992)=
(1993)=
(1994)=
(1995)=
Step3:Usetheformulatocalculaterealdollars:
Pricedeflator(currentyear)Dollarfigure(currentyear)
Pricedeflator(baseyear)
Dollarfigure(baseyear)
Step4:Calculatetherevenuestreaminreal(1990)dollarsterms:
1990:
1991:
1992:
1993:
=,X=

1994:
1995:
1996:
=

=,X=

=,X=

=,X=

=,X=

=,X=

=,X=

Revenue(\$Million)
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

(1996)=
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BainMath
ForeignExchange-Definitions
Priceatwhichonecountry’scurrencycanbeconvertedintoanother’s
ForeignExchange:
ExchangeRate:
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BainMath
ForeignExchangeRates
1)US\$equivalent=USdollarsper1selectedforeigncurrencyunit
2)CurrencyperUS\$=selectedforeigncurrencyunitsper1USdollar
TheWallStreetJournalTuesday,November25,1997
Monday,November24,1997
ExchangeRates
Country
Argentina(Peso)
Britain
(Pound)
US\$

CurrencyperUS\$2

Country
France
(Franc)
Germany(Mark)
US\$Equiv.

CurrencyperUS\$

Country
Singapore(dollar)
US\$Equiv.

CurrencyperUS\$

Financialpublications,suchastheWallStreetJournal,provideexchangerates.
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BainMath
ForeignExchange-Exercises
Question1:
Question2:
Question3:
=?Britishpounds
fromtable:&#163;=US\$
\$=&#163;
=?US\$

fromtable:\$=1Franc
=\$
1,000GermanMarks=?Singaporedollars

fromtable:\$=1Mark
=US\$1
1,000GermanMarksxx=
&#163;US\$1
\$
\$
\$1
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