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a
Asia–Pacific
Employmentand
SocialOutlook
2022
Rethinkingsectoralstrategiesforahuman-centredfutureofwork
Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022
Rethinkingsectoralstrategiesforahuman-centredfutureofwork
Copyright©InternationalLabourOrganization2022
Firstpublished2022
,shortexcerptsfromthemmaybereproducedwithoutauthorization,,applicationshouldbemadetoILOPublications(RightsandLicensing),InternationalLabourOffice,CH-1211Geneva22,Switzerland,orbyemail:******@.
Libraries,.
Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022:Rethinkingsectoralstrategiesforahuman-centredfutureofwork
InternationalLabourOffice–Geneva:ILO,2022.
ISBN:9789220381472(webpdf);9789220381465(print)
/EQNI6264
labourmarketanalysis/economicsector/employment/decentwork/futureofwork/Asia/Pacific/
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Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022
iii
Foreword
Foreword
,restaurantsandshopsareopenandtrafficjamsinurbanareashaveresumed,withcars,buses,taxisandmotorbikesfullofdailycommuters,,many“forsale”signsonbuildings,morestreetsleepersthanusualandanincreasednumberofstreetprotests–allvisiblesignsthattheregionhasnotyetfullybouncedbackfromtheblowoftheCOVID-19pandemic.
–-19crisisstandsoutincomparisontopreviouscrisesthatimpactedtheregion,namelytheAsianfinancialcrisisof1997–98andtheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007–09,-19crisisthat,addedtothelossofjobsgiveafullerdepictionoftheimpactfelt.
Thereportdiscusseswherelabourmarketsarerecovering,evenifnowconfrontedbyabarrageofnewchallengeslikeinflationandgeopoliticaltensionsthathavecreatedheadwindstoemployment--timeassessmentofregionalsectoralestimatestohighlightwhichsectorsaregrowingassourcesofjobs,whichareshrinkingandwhichharbouropportunitiesfor“decentwork”.
OnethingthatIfindespeciallyvaluableaboutthiseditionoftheOutlookisitsreminderofthecontinueddominanceofthe“big”sourcesoflabourincomeintheregion,thesebeingagriculture,manufacturingandwholesaleandretailtrade,where60percentoftheregion’,jobsinthesesectorsaremoreinformalthanformal,.
Knowingthisgivesusaclearstartingpointforactioninpursuitofahuman-centredrecoverythatisinclusive,’andemployers’,butespeciallythoseshowingthelargestdecentworkdeficits,willbringinclusivegrowthtoAsiaandthePacificandsettheregionbackontracktoahuman-centredfutureofwork.
ChihokoAsada-Miyakawa
AssistantDirector-Generaland
RegionalDirectorforAsiaandthePacific
InternationalLabourOrganization
Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022
v
Contents
Contents
X
Foreword
iii
X
Acknowledgements
ix
X
Abbreviations
x
X
Executivesummary
xi
X
1
3
4
11
16
17
20
22
-19crisisandvulnerabilities:Whathavewelearned?
27
29
32
32
32
36
39
44
44
-growthsectors
45
47
,labourproductivityanddevelopment
50
-19impact
54
-centredfutureofwork
58
59
61
growthpromotion
62
X
References
67
71
72
75
vi
Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022
Contents
Listoffigures
1.
GDPestimatesandprojections,AsiaandPacific,2019–23
4
2.
GDPgrowth,AsiaandPacificregionandsubregions,2019–23
5
3.
Shareofemployedincountrieswithpandemic-relatedworkplaceclosures,AsiaandPacific,
6
January2020–September2022
4.
Annualinflationratesandinflationtargetsofcentralbanks,selectedAsiancountries,
7
September2022
5.
Pricesofselectedcommoditiesin2022,percentagechangefrom2019
8
6.
Totalenergysupply,bysource,AsiaandPacific,1990–2019
8
7.
Generalgovernmentgrossdebt,AsiaandPacificregion,subregionsandeconomies,2019
9
and2022
8.
MonthlyexportsofgoodsfromAsiaandthePacific,2014–22
10
9.
Totalemploymentandemployment-to-populationratio,AsiaandPacific,2005–22
12
10.
Employmentchange,bysexandagegroup,AsiaandPacificregionandsubregions,2019–22
12
11.
Workinghourlossesrelativetothe2019fourthquarterlevel,AsiaandPacificregionand
15
subregions,2020-22
12.
Inactivitychange,AsiaandPacific,2019–22
17
13.
Unemploymentandunemploymentrate,AsiaandPacific
21
14.
Workingpovertyrateandvulnerableemploymentrate,totalandbyincomegroup,Asiaand
23
Pacific,2015–21
15.
Informalandformalemployment,AsiaandPacific,2019–22
24
16.
Labourincomeshareofthebottom50percent,globalregionsandAsiaandPacificsubregions,
27
2009and2019
17.
Labourforceparticipationrateofprime-agemothersandfathersofsmallchildren,Asiaand
28
Pacificsubregionsandglobal,2020
18.
Labourmarketstatus,actualestimatesagainsthypotheticalno-COVID-19scenario,Asiaand
29
Pacific,2015–23
19.
Tensectorswithlargestemploymentshares,bysexandagecohort,AsiaandPacific,2021
33
20.
Leadingsectorsinemploymentshare,AsiaandPacificsubregions,2021
35
21.
Employmentinthemanufacturingsector,AsiaandPacific
37
22.
Spectrumofjobquality,bysectorofemployment,AsiaandPacific
40
23.
Toptenemploymentgrowthsectors(averageannualrates)andfemaleshareinemployment
45
growth,AsiaandPacific,1991–2021
24.
Employmentincrease,topfivesectorsinnominalgrowthandtopfivesectorsinpercentage
47
growth,AsiaandPacific,1991–2021
25.
Employment,bybroadsector,AsiaandPacific,1991–2021
48
26.
Changeinsectoralemployment,AsiaandPacificsubregions,1991–2021
48
27.
Characteristicsofemploymentindicators,bybroadsector,AsiaandPacific,1991–2021
49
Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022
vii
Contents
28.
Changeinemploymentshare,bybroadsector,low-andhigh-growtheconomygroupings,
51
2010–19ornearestyears
29.
Industrialemploymentshare,middle-incomeeconomiesofAsiaandthePacific,2021
52
30.
Labourproductivitygrowth,totalandbybroadsector,AsiaandPacific,2000–20
53
31.
Decompositionoflabourproductivitygrowth,AsiaandPacific,selectedperiods
53
32.
Changeinemploymentinthemanufacturingsector,economiesinAsiaandthePacific,2019–21
56
33.
Changeinemploymentintheagriculturesector,economiesinAsiaandthePacific,1991–2019
57
and2019–21
-to-populationratio,AsiaandPacificsubregions,2005–22
72
A2.
Employment-to-populationratio,bysex,AsiaandPacificregionandsubregions,2002and
73
2022
A3.
Employment,bybroadsector,AsiaandPacificsubregions,1991–2021
74
Listoftables
-tomedium-skillandhigh-skilloccupationalgroupings
25
(2021)andpercentagechangeinemploymentbyoccupationalgrouping(2019–21),Asiaand
Pacificregionandsubregions
2.
GDPgrowthandemployment,byformal,informal,wageandvulnerablestatus,Asiaand
26
Pacific,variousperiods
3.
YouthNEETrates,2022,andchangeinnumberofyouthNEETs,2019–22,AsiaandPacific
28
regionandsubregions
4.
Broademploymentprofiles,byselectedsectors,AsiaandPacific
41
5.
Sectorswithfemaleshareofemploymentgrowthhigherthan50percent,AsiaandPacific,
46
1991–2021
6.
Employmentchange,AsiaandPacific,2019–21
55
Boxes
?UnderstandingchangesintheILONovember2022modelled
14
estimates
2.
COVID-19andteleworkinAsiaandthePacific
16
3.
HowdoestheCOVID-19crisiscomparetotheAsianfinancialandglobalfinancialcrises?
18
4.
CombiningworkandparentinginAsiaandthePacific
19
5.
WhytheunemploymentrateisaweakmetricofdecentworkinAsiaandthePacific
20
6.
Whatarelabourmarketinstitutions?
61
7.
PromotinginternationallabourstandardsinglobalsupplychainsinChina
63
Asia–PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2022
ix
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
ThisreportisanoutputoftheRegionalEconomicandSocialAnalysisUnitoftheInternationalLabourOrganization’sRegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacific,.
,standardizeanddisseminatecountry-ühnoftheILOResearchDepartment,incoordinationwithChristianViegelahn,,RogerGomis,TiteHabiyakare,StevenKapsos,ArchivalMahajan,QuentinMathys,YvesPerardelandMabelinVillarreal-Fuentesfortheirtirelesseffortsinsupportingtheproductionofstatistics.
TheteamwishestoacknowledgethehelpfulcommentsandsuggestionsonthedraftprovidedbytwoanonymousreviewersandILOc