Meandering rivers’ morphological changes analysis and prediction – a case study of Barak river, Assam 2022 Apurba Nath.pdf

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©2022TheAuthorsH2OpenJournalVol5No2,289doi:.003
Meanderingrivers’morphologicalchangesanalysisandprediction–acase
studyofBarakriver,Assam
ApurbaNath*andSusmitaGhosh
CivilEngineeringDepartment,NationalInstituteofTechnologySilchar,Silchar,Assam,India
*-mail:apurba_******@
ABSTRACT
Morphologicalstudiesarevitalforwaterresourcesmanagement,riverbankdevelopment,,the
sinuosityindexandbankerosionwereusedtodetectandquantifymorphologicalchangesusingLandsatdata(1990–2020)in
theBarakriver,
protectivestructuresonbankmigration,
datafromtwostreamgaugestations,theSeasonalAutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(SARIMA)modelsweredevel-

,beingtrainedwithdatafrom2006
(2016–2018)showsthatthemeanabsolutepercentageerrorfordischargeattwogauging
%,-

-
mentandidentifiesfuturemorphologicalchanges.
Keywords:meanderingrivermanagement,rivermorphology,riverprotectionstructure,SARIMAmodel,sinuosityindex
HIGHLIGHTS
•Sinuosityindexandriverbankerosionbothareinverselyproportional.
•
planningmightleadtodownstreamhazards.
•TheSARIMAmodelcanaccuratelyestimatefuturedischargebywhichsegment-by-segmentfuturemorphologicalanalyses
arepossible.
ThisisanOpenAccessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicence(),whichpermitscopying,
adaptationandredistribution,providedtheoriginalworkisproperlycited(/).
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GRAPHICALABSTRACT


,itisrequiredto
studytherivers’
themorphologicalchangesinrivers(Schumm1963;Ozturk&Sesli2015).Theriverdrainageline’ssinuosity
indexmeasurestheriver’simpactonterrain(Panda&Bora1992).Bankerosion,accretion,andchannelaltera-
tionarecloselylinkedtoclimatechange,dischargeamount,typeofbedmaterial,andfluctuationsinthe
hydrologiccycle.
Riverbankerosionisanendemicdisasterthathasalong-termimpactonvariousnaturaldisasters(Dasetal.
2014).Stream-bankerosionanditsconsequencesonchannelevolutionareimportantgeomorphicresearch
-economicadverse
effects,likeSerbianfarmerslosingtheirproductivelandsontheleftbankoftheDanuberiverbecauseofflooding
().BankerosioninPadmaandJamunariversinBangladeshbetween1970and2000dis-
placedmorethantwolakhspeoplefromtheirresidentialarea(Islam&Rashid2011).Themorphological
changeintheGangaRivernearAllahabad,Indiawasstudied().AccordingtotheNationalDis-
asterManagementAuthority,India(2014),BiharandAssamweretwoofIndia’smostheavilyfloodedand
erosion-(SAC),Ahmedabad,India,andtheBrah-
maputraBoard,India(SACandBrahmaputraBoard1996)determinetheimpactsofrivererosiononMajuli
Island,toidentifyanddelineatetheislandportionsthathadchangedalongthebanklineduetotheriver’s
-
maputraRiveratAgyathuri,Assam,India()for30years,-MSS,TM,
andETMimageswereusedtoanalyzethechangesintheBrahmaputrariverflowbetween1970and2002(Das&
Saraf2007).
TheBarakriver,whichflowsparalleltotheBrahmaputrainthesoutheastpartoftheHimalayanrangein
northeasternIndia,isthecountry’ssecond-largestriver,%ofthecountry’stotalgeographi-
’sdischargeandsedimentcarryingcapacityhaveincreasedinrecentyears(Annayat&
Sil2020a).TheBarakRiver’schannelbehaviorwasanalyzedusingsatelliteimageryandsomefielddatatofind
riversegmentsthatremainedsteadybetween1910and1988(Bardhan1993).Barakriver’squantitativeanalysis
revealedanupwardtrendinerosionanddepositionwasobservedbetween1918and2003(Laskar&Phukon
2012).Thestudywasperformedtoevaluatethedegreeofflowcontrolsrequiredinupstreamcatchmentsto
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providesafeflowatdownstreamdamagelocationsintheBarakriver()usedtodetectthe
changesintheplanformfeaturesoftheriverBarakMoreover,majorbankshiftingintheBarakriverwasana-
lyzed,thestudypredictsthatitwillhavedisastrouseffectsontheeconomyandlivelihoodofthepeoplesoon
(Annayat&Sil2020a).Thestudywasperformedtodescribeandassesstheempiricaltechniqueandtime
sequenceextrapolationmethodforchannelwidthpredictionoverBarak(Annayat&Sil2020b).
Duringthepost-independenceperiod,Assamexperiencedcatastrophicfloodsin1954,1962,1972,1977,1984,
1998,2002,2004,and2012(Kipgen&Pegu2018).Duetoflooding,hugebankerosionoccurredintheBrahma-
putraandBarakvalleys,,an
().Spatialanalytictechnologiessuchasgeographicinfor-
mationsystems(GIS)andremotesensing(RS)canbeusedefficientlyfortheaccurateidentificationofflood
extentanddepthswithinfloodplains,whicharecrucialforproperfloodmanagement(Sahoo&Pekkat
2018).Manyremotesensingstudiesweredoneonmajorriversworldwide(Rinaldi2003;;
;;Betancourt-Suá).Therefore,itisrevealedfromtheprevious
literaturethatoneofthekeyreasonsforbankerosionistheoccurrenceofhighfloodsinthealluvialchannel
().Floodriskincreaseswhenthesinuosityofthestreamdecreases,andriverbanksfailwhen
downwarddrivingforcesexceedresistingforces(Mohammed-).
Thestudyoffloodforecastingandwarningsystemwasincreasedduetotheincreasingimpactofhighflooding
-effectivedesignofriverengineeringworks,apreciseestimateofaflood
ofaspecificrecurrenceperiodatasiteistypicallyrequired().Thehydrological,environ-
mental,andsocietaleffectwasstudiedtoidentifytheeffectoffloodrisk(Kumar&Bhattacharjya2020).The
needformoreaccuratetimeseriesforecastmodelshaspromptedresearcherstodevelopimprovedmethods
formodelingtimeseriesandtacklingnon-linearityissues(WMO2011).Thefrequencyandamountofpeak
flowaffecttheplanninganddesignofwaterresourceprojectsandflood-plainmanagement().
Thus,awatershed’saveragedischargerepresentsthepotentialwaterresourcesused,andtheutilizationstrategy
,atimeseriesmodel
canexpresstheriverdischargepatternmathematically().AutoregressiveIntegratedMoving
Average(ARIMA)modelisoneofthesewidelyusedlineartimeseriesmodels(Box&Jenkins1976).Thestochas-

modelwassuitableforhydrologicalsimulationsforEuropeanrivers().TheARIMA
model’sapplicabilitytomonthlyflowserieswasinvestigated().Themodelwasappliedtofore-

preparedtoreducedamagefromsevere,widespread,andunexpectedfloods,theseeffectivefloodwarningand

uneven;asaresult,thisseriesishighlyvariable(Moeeni&Bonakdari2010).Thisstudyprovidesthemodel
-
gratedMovingAverage(SARIMA)isatimeseriesmodelusedforpredictingfuturetimeseriesbasedonthe
,aswellthe
(Sharma
).Whenthetimeseriesdatashowseasonalcharacteristics,SARIMAmodelsareused,whichcombine

duetotheseasonalityofthetimeseries(Zhang2003).
Frompreviousliterature,ithasbeenconcludedtheBarakfloodplainintheCacharregionhassufferedregu-

SARIMAmodelcanbeappliedtotheBarakRiverintheCacharregionforanalyzingandpredictingmonthlydis-
,discharge-morphologybehaviorandfuture
morphologicalconsequencesareessential,
haveidentifiedthefuturedischargetimeserieswithahighseasonalvariancemodelandtheoutputofthepredic-

emergencyactionplanwithsuitablestructuralprotectionplanninginadvancetopreventfuturerivermorphologi-
calchanges.

efficientwaterandsedimentconveyance(Klassen&Verneer1988).Therefore,theefficiencyofprotectionstruc-
turewithinalluvialreachisalsoimportantforassessingtheriverdischargeandforecastingtherivermorphology.
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morphologicalchangesconcernthepositionofrivercontrolpointsandreachdynamicsanddividethechannel
intodiscretesub-reacheswithsimilarmorphology.
FloodsarearecurringissueintheCacharregion,Assam,,
destroyingpropertyandcropsanddisruptingcommunicationsduetoerosion(Das2012;Choudhuryetal.
2014).Theamountofbankerosionfluctuatesfromyeartoyear,dependingontheintensityofthestate’s

(alargeportionofwhichcomesfromtheBrahmaputra-BarakRiverSystem),
accountingfor34%ofthecountry’stotalwaterresources(Das2013).Bankerosionfrequentlyoccursintheallu-
vialriverplains,,asignificantbankshiftingwasobservedontheBarak
river(Das2012).Hence,ahugeamountofrivermigrationwasobservedwithinthispartoftheriver.

Inthepresentstudy,ananalysisofmorphologicalchangesinBarakriverwasperformedtoquantifythechanges

modelwasfurtherappliedtopredictfuturemorphologicalchangesinrivers.
Thestudy’sfirstgoalistoanalyzethemorphologicalchangesoftheregionandunderstandthemorphological
changingbehaviorofriverBarakbycomputingsegment-wisesinuosityindexandbankerosionusingremotesen-
-,
oneoftheprimaryconcernsofthemorphologicalstudywastoassesstheeffectivenessofrecentlyprotected