文档介绍：Comment Page 1
Equity Research
Asia/Pacific
Economics
China Economics
Andy Xie Economic Trends June 19, 2003
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Denise Yam Raising 2003 GDP Forecast
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RECENT REPORTS • Raising GDP growth rate forecast to % from % for 2003 on strong exports
Assessing the Impact of SARS China’s exports have far exceeded our expectations at the beginning of
Andy Xie May 20, 2003 2003. We now believe that exports will remain strong in light of an
No Pain, No Gain improving outlook for US economy.
Andy Xie April 13, 2003 • However, China might experience a trade deficit for the remainder of 2003
The growth rate modity Research Bureau’s index could
Growing Pains average 14% above last year’s rate. This represents a major
Andy Xie April 7, 2003 deterioration in terms-of-trade for China. The surge in auto sales is
also lifting imports above our expectations.
• Financial sector represents the biggest risk
Investigations into financial scandals have the potential to generate a
credit crunch. However, government agencies appear to be
coordinating their efforts to avoid such an e. Yet, the risk still
appears significant, in our view.
China: Exports Are Driving Industrial Production (YoY % change)
30 100
IP (LHA)
25 Electricity (LHA) 80
Export (RHA)
20
60
15
40
10