文档介绍：城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评估研究
摘要:总结提出城市轨道交通PPP项目关键风险因素集,共包括7个一级风险因素和21个二级风险因素,结合项目实例采用灰色关联度分析法对AHP进行修正,用以对项目关键风险因素损失度进行评估,利用Shapley值模型对风险因素发生概率进行预测评估,最终得出7个一级风险因素的综合风险量大小依次为建设风险、市场开发风险、金融风险、政策风险、组织管理风险、信用风险、不可抗力风险,根据风险因素评估结果,提出风险应对措施,对提高项目成功率、促进PPP项目在我国健康发展具有重大作用。
Abstract: Key risk factors for PPP projects of urban rail transit are pointed out in the paper, including 7 primary risk factors and 21 secondary risk factors. Grey correlation analysis is adopted to modify bined with practical case, which is used to assess the damage degree of project key risk factors. And Shapley value model is used to forecast the probability of risk factors assessment. Finally it is concluded that amount prehensive risk index of seven risk factors are market risk, financial risk, policy risk, organization and management risk, credit risk and force majeure risks. According to the results of the risk factors evaluation, measures to deal with risks are put forward, which play an important role in improving the ess
rate of project and promoting the PPP project in the healthy development of China.
关键词:城市轨道交通;PPP项目;灰色关联度分析法;Shapley值模型
Key words: urban rail transit;PPP projects;grey correlation analysis method;Shapley value model
中图分类号:TU714;F572 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1006-4311(2017)02-0001-06
0 引言
随着我国经济的迅速发展以及城市化进程的加快,经济区域布局发生改变,随之而来的是城市空间区域得到扩展、城市人口不断增长、居民出行次数频繁,导致交通堵塞,城市环境质量日益恶化。因此,发展具有节能减排功能的绿色交通是当前亟需