文档介绍：BCG’S VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTS By Rawley Thomas Director of Research The Boston Consulting Group 200 South Wacker Drive Chicago, Illinois 60606 312-627-2618 @ WHAT GETS MEASURED GETS DONE Traditional Valuation Techniques Versus BCG’s Valuation Framework Traditional Valuation Techniques Forecast nominal cash flows by estimating P&L line items and changes to the balance sheet Estimate terminal value with a perpetuity of the forecasted last year’ cash flow Determine cost of capital by weighting equity CAPM cost with debt cost Discount the cash flows and terminal value to present value with the weighted average cost of capital Observations on Missing Elements No performance measure to determine if the business is achieving returns above or below the cost of capital or if the trend in those returns is up or down No fade in performance to determine likely cash flows in petitive environment Discount rates determined by past price changes, not future likely cash flows No extensive empirical testing BCG’s Valuation Framework Translate accounting statements to gross cash flows and gross cash investments in constant dollars to produce cash on cash returns Translate cash on cash returns to economic performance measures (CFROIs) by adjusting for asset life and mix of depreciating versus non-depreciating assets Determine sustainable asset growth rates Fade CFROIs and asset growth rates toward corporate averages consistent with life cycle theory and empirical evidence to estimate future cash flows (replaces terminal valuation) Estimate market derived real discount rate by equating the present value of the cash flows for a large aggregate to the sum of the prices of debt and equity Apply the market derived discount rate to the cash flows derived from fading economic performance to determine market valuation; subtract debt to determine equity valuation Test model values against actual stock prices for thousands of firms for 10-40 y