文档介绍：研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettism
巴菲特致股东的信 1988 年
Buffett’s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1988
Our gain worth during 1988 was $569 本公司 1988 年的净值增加了五亿六
million, or %. Over the last 24 years (that 千九百万美元,较去年增加了 %,
is, since present management took over), our 而过去 24 年以来(自从现有经营阶层
per-share book value has grown from $ to 接手后),每股净值从 19 元成长到现
$2,, or at a rate of % compounded 在的 2,974 美元,年复合成长率约为
annually. %。
We e emphasized in past reports that what 在过去的年报中我们一再强调真正
counts, however, is intrinsic business value - 重要的是企业的真实价值,它代表着
the figure, necessarily an estimate, indicating 我们旗下企业组成份子到底值多少
what all of our constituent businesses are worth. 钱?这个数字绝对是个估计数,根据
By our calculations, Berkshire intrinsic 我们内部的估算,目前伯克希尔真实
business value significantly exceeds its book 的价值已大幅超越其帐面价值,过去
value. Over the 24 years, business value has 24 年以来,企业价值成长的速度一直
grown somewhat faster than book value; in 1988, 要比帐面价值成长的幅度要高一点,
however, book value grew the faster, by a bit. 但在 1988 年情况有点不同,后者增
加的幅度略高于前者。
Berkshire past rates of gain in both book 过去伯克希尔真实与帐面价值成长
value and business value were achieved under 的背景,与现在有很大的不同,若搞
circumstances far different from those that now 不清楚其间的差异,就好象是一位棒
exist. Anyone ignoring these differences makes 球教练在判断高龄 42 岁的中外野手
the same mistake that a baseball manager would 未来潜力时,以他一生的平均打击率
were he to judge the future prospects of a 作为判断依据。
42-year-old center fielder on the basis of his
lifetime batting average.
Important negatives affecting our prospects 今日我们所面临不利的因素主要有:
today are: (1) a less attractive stock market (1)目前的股票市场过热,股价相对
than generally existed over the past 24 years; 偏高(2) 企业投资利益的税负过高
(2) higher corporate tax rates on most forms of (3)企业被购并的价格偏高(4) 伯克
investment e; (3) a far more richly-priced 希尔主要三大投资事业(约占本公司
market for the acquisition of businesses; and (4) 净值的一半)资本城/ABC、GEICO 汽
industry conditions for Capital Cities/ABC, 车保险与华盛顿邮报,个别的产业状
Inc., GEICO Corp