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HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL | THIRD QUARTER | 2009
High-end Residential Market
上海高端住宅市场
Outlook for Q4 2009 HIGHLIGHTS 报告要点
2009年第四季度预测
The overall residential market consolidated some- 三季度，整体住宅市场在经历年初的强劲反弹
Rental Capital Value Gross Yield what in Q3 2009 after the strong rebound since the
租金 售价 收益率 后有所调整。然而受流动性宽裕，在供应有限
beginning of 2009. Yet driven by abundant liquidity 情形下市场良好预期的驱动，高端住宅市场销
and sanguine market outlook against limited sup-
High-end Apartment 售火爆。
高端公寓 ply, the high-end residential market showed stellar
performance.
Serviced Apartment
服务式公寓
Average rental in Shanghai’s high-end residential 尽管新增供应增加使空置率小幅上升，但受整
Villa market held steady in Q3 2009, underpinned by im- 体经济有所改善以及住宅市场需求回暖影响，
别墅
provement in the overall economy as well as recoup 三季度上海高端住宅市场平均租金保持稳定。
Overall Market of some end-user demand, though vacancy rate
整体市场 rose slightly due to ample new supply.
The high-end residential market will hold steady in 预计年底前，货币政策仍保持适度宽松，加之
the rest of 2009, as the “moderately loose” mon- 经济复苏以及投资需求的支持作用，上海高端
etary policy, coupled with recovery of the economy 住宅市场仍将保持平稳。
Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research
:数据来源 上海高力国际研究部 and recoup in investment demand will provide
support.
Leasing demand for high-end residential proper- 伴随外籍人员的返回以及2010年世博会的利好
ties is expected to revive somewhat along with the 因素，高端住宅租赁需求将有所回升，为租金
return of expatriates and also boosting effect from 提供一些支持。
the upcoming 2010 World Expo, thus rendering
some support to rental.
OVERALL RESIDENTIAL MARKET 整体住宅市场
Following the strong rebound in H1 2009, the overall residential market 继上半年强劲反弹后，三季度末上海整体住宅市场成交量有所放
experienced some ease back in transaction volume towards the end of Q3 缓，然而成交价仍进一步走强。虽然7月和8月内环内销售面积环比
2009, yet with price still firming up further. Transaction volume within
分别下降1％和8％，但这两个月同比增长仍保持强劲，成交均价同
the inner-ring area edged down by 1% M-o-M in July and 8% in August,
though on Y-o-Y terms, there was still strong increase, and average price 比上浮31％。受宽裕的流动性和资产价格升值预期影响，高端住宅
surged by 31% in the last two months. Driven by abundant liquidity and 市场销售火爆。与此相反，在中、低端市场，房价经历前几个月急
expectation of asset price appreciation, the high-end residential market 速上涨已处于较高水平，如浦东三林、闸北大宁等部分区域房价甚
showed stellar performance. In contrast, transactions in the mass market
至已高于历史最高水平，这在一定程度上抑制了自住需求，从而导
started to retreat following the price surge in the past few months, among
which prices in some districts, such as Sanlin in Pudong and Daning 致成交量下滑。
in Zhabei, even surpassed their previous peaks. The price surge to some
extent has restrained end-user demand, thereby leading to a fall in trans-
actions. 为抑制开发商销售过程中的“捂盘惜售”现象，上海市政府在6月
底出台了《上海市商品房销售方案备案管理暂行规定》，另外重
In order to prevent developers’ from manipulating sales by holding up 申严格执行商品房销售有关申请预售面积不得低于3万平方米的规
supply, the Shanghai municipal government issued the “Provisional Reg-
ulations on Sales Plans of Commodity Housing in Shanghai” in end-June.
In addition, the municipal government also reiterated strict enforcement
of the requirement that floor area sold by developers in pre-sale should
not be less than 30,000 sq m. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Banking Regu-
The Knowledge Report | Third Quarter | 2009 | High-End Residential
latory Commission also issued “Notice on Further Controlling Risk in 定。此外，上海银监会亦在7月下发《关于进一步加强按揭贷款风
Home Mortgage” in July, requiring commercial banks to abide strictly 险管理的通知》，要求各银行严格执行二套房贷政策。这些政策使
the mortgage policy for purchase of a second property. As these measures
火爆的楼市以及高企的房价有所降温，而作为销售旺季的10月可能
have helped somewhat to cool off the buoyant sales market, coupled
with the higher prices, the traditional high sales season in October may 将难以出现销售旺势。
see less stellar performance this year.
Figure 1 Supply, Take-up and Average Price of Shanghai Residential Market Figure 2 Shanghai Residential Average Price and Sold Area within Inner
Ring Area
图 1 上海住宅销售市场供应、需求及均价 图 2 上海住宅市场内环内区域交易价格及面积统计
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