文档介绍：Natural Gas & LNG Outlook
National Energy Board
TRISTONE
CAPITAL
Chris Theal, CFA
ctheal@
THE INSIGHT BEHIND ENERGY ESS
March 8, 2006
Executive Summary
The formulation of our base-case scenario
¾ Long-term price forecast is US$ and US$50/b WTI
¾ . supply costs are price-maker; LNG is a price-taker
Tristone’s base-case scenario
¾ Forecast global LNG trade
¾ Regional trade expectations
Beyond 2010
¾ Challenges in growing LNG trade
. supply / demand outlook
NEB scenario analysis considerations
TRISTONE
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LNG & . Gas Prices
TRISTONE
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Tristone Base-Case Outlook Assumes US$
Base-Case outlook assumes US$ gas price forecast
¾ Equivalent to a L/T WTI price of US$50/b
Key Price drivers
¾ Producer full-cycle cash costs set . gas price
¾ Comparative back prices
¾ Substitution
¾ Economic rent
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Natural Gas Forward Prices
Tristone assumes a US$ gas price in our best-case scenario
Current strip through 2010 is US$
Historical NYMEX Price and Forward Strip
2006 & 2007 Forecast
Tristone long-term price assumption
Ja n -0 0 Ja n -0 1 Ja n -0 2 Ja n -0 3 Ja n -0 4 Ja n -0 5 Ja n -0 6 Ja n -0 7 Ja n -0 8 Ja n -0 9 Ja n -1 0
Sp ot Pri ce Forward Strip
Source: Bloomberg TRISTONE
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North American Full Cycle Gas Supply Cost
Full cycle gas supply costs are up 15%/yr over the past four years
. supply costs today are US$
. supply costs will set the long-term price for . natural gas
14 1,400
12
1,200
10
1,000
f
8
# Rigs
US$/mc 800
6
600
4
400
2
- 200
1998 1999 2000 2 2 20 2004 20 2006 2
0 0 0
01 02 0 0 07
3 5
Nymex 12-Month Strip Total Supply Costs US Gas Rig Count
Source: Bloomberg, Tristone TRISTONE
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WCSB Gas Supply
All Other Gas W ell Decline