文档介绍：Subscriber Growth Challenges Natural Gas Industry
American Gas Association
December 1, 2004
Legal disclaimer
This information was prepared by Bain & Company, Inc. on behalf of a single client and disguised for presentation to the AGA—it is not to be relied upon by any third party without Bain’s written consent
This analysis is based on information obtained from external sources, which Bain believes to be reliable, however, Bain makes no representation as to the accuracy pleteness of the information or the estimates included
Each recipient of this presentation should make their own assessment of the information contained herein
Certain data have been altered/disguised
2
Price increases, volatility, and deregulation have created significant turbulence
Note: Prices are in real 1999 dollars
Source: Energy Information Administration 2004
3
Price IS important
Note: Defection percentage excludes defections as a result of vacancies, 1999 baseline used for incremental vacancy calculation
Sources: Client internal data, US Census, EIA, Bain analysis
PRELIMINARY
4
Safety requirements can also petitiveness
Note: HVAC/Plumber interviews; Retail prices shown for Home Depot, interviews as of Q2 2004
5
Water heaters are critical as defection rates drop dramatically as number of tips increase
Number of appliances in the home
6
Electric utilities also increasingly providing developers incentives for “all electric” homes
With Gas
All Electric Installation (net of incentives)
Developer
pays Utility
Utility pays
Developer
Source: Sales Representatives Interviews
7
These incentives work; 70% of builders that chose to go all electric did so due to costs
“Gas Co. said it would cost me $13,000 to get gas to my 30 home development. The pany would do it for free plus give me an $8,000 credit.”
-Builder
“It’s really the EMCs that are killing you. Their penalties are so high for choosing gas that I can’t afford to do both.”
-Builder
“It costs me $700 per home to