文档介绍：TRADE AND THE DIFFUSION OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Robert E. Lucas, Jr. Working Paper 13286 ers/w13286
陈忠斌()
武汉大学经济与管理学院
ABSTRACT
A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies.
The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on es and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries.
The model predicts convergence of e levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.
1. Introduction
Growth rates in the leading economies have remained close 2% per year since the 19th century. Over two centuries, this adds up to a more than 40-fold increase in GDP per capita.
Since some countries have remained at or near Malthusian e levels, this growth has given rise to an enormous and historically unprecedented level of cross-country inequality.
1. Introduction
In such a context, a study of economic growth in the world as a whole must be a study of the diffusion of the industrial revolution across economies, a study of the cross-country flows of production-related knowledge from the essful economies to the essful ones. These flows are the main force for the reduction of e inequality, for the convergence of es to mon, growing level.
1. Introduction
The model itself is a modified version of the model I used in Lucas (1993, 2000), closely related to Rodriguez (2006), and based on the earlier work of Tamura (1991) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992).
1. Introduction
The aim of this model-construction is to use the abundant evidence on economies that have essfully industrialized to learn about the possibilities for the poor economies that have only begun to do so, or those where growth has slowed after promising beginnings.
1. Introduction
Section 4 introduces a traditional agriculture sector into the spillover model, in a way that is consistent with evidence o