文档介绍：中央民族大学学士学位论文
Bachelor Thesis of Central University of Nationalities
北京市人口预测模型研究
姓名:
郭杨
学号:
0453055
年级:
2004级
院系:
理学院
专业:
信息与计算科学
指导教师:
2008年4月25日
摘要
本文根据国家统计局发布的北京市统计公报公布的数据,利用人口预测模型,对北京市人口在未来近三十年间的变化情况作出预测,同时依据预测结果,提出了改进方案。
在人口预测方面,采用了马尔萨斯人口模型,二次指数平滑模型以及Logistic模型,将人口预测分为常住人口以及户籍人口进行预测,同时对模型的预测误差进行检定,给出各个模型的预测效果分析,预测结果。
前面几个模型中,马尔萨斯模型和Logistic模型对人口的预测结果的增长趋势是固定的,长期预测效果不佳,因此我对模型进行了改进,使用灰色模型GM(1,1)对数据进行预测,更加接近真实值。本文由以下几章构成:
第一章利用人口预测模型对常住人口和户籍人口进行预测,对模型预测误差和效果进行分析。
第二章针对模型的不足——预测结果的增长趋势是固定的,长期预测效果不佳提出改进模型,采用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测提高预测结果的准确性和真实性。
关键词: 人口预测;常住人口;户籍人口;马尔萨斯;二次指数平滑;Logistic;灰色模型;Excel;SAS;DPS
Abstract
According to statistics reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics,I applied three models of population prediction to forcast the trend of Beijing’s next thirty years population. I also based on forecast results, an improvement program.
In the population projections,I chose Malthus population model, Second exponential smoothing model and Logistic Separate population projections from resident population to household population forecast. I am also on the model's prediction error test, given all the final results of the forecast model.
Among previous models, Malthus model and Logistic model predict the e of the population growth trend is fixed, which forecast long-term projections ineffective, so I had to improve on the model, the use of grey model GM (1,1) data to predict , closer to true value.
In this paper a few chapters from the following:
In chapter one I use population projections for the resident population model and household population forecasts, the model prediction error and effect analysis.
In chapter two I am talking model is inadequate - predict the e of the growth trend is fixed, whose long-term projections by poor results improved model, I use the grey model GM (1,1) results of the forecast increase forecast accuracy and authenticity.
Key words: population projections; resident population;