文档介绍：第 41 卷第 5 期浙江大学学报( 人文社会科学版) Vol. 41, No. 5
2011 年 9 月 Journal of Zhejiang University( Humanities and Social Sciences) Sep. 2011
DOI: 10. 3785/ j. issn. 1008
942X. 2011. 03. 091
主体行为、预期形成与房地产市场稳定
贺京同
徐
璐
( 南开大学经济研究所, 天津 300071)
[ 摘
要] 基于行为经济学理论, 对我国房地产市场主体的决策过程和市场运行机制进行理论及实证
研究后发现: 我国房地产市场主体行为受货币幻觉、过度信心、片面信息、供给垄断等行为因素的显著影
响, 从而不断推高房地产升值预期, 并在预期实现时得到进一步强化。这一正反馈过程导致升值预期持
续累积升高, 是我国房地产市场持续高速增长的重要动力。经测算, 房地产成交量中 43. 42% 的增长是由
上述行为因素引起的。对行为因素的忽视是近年来房地产调控政策收效甚微的根本原因。因而, 只有减
少各种片面信息的频繁发布, 改变地方政府对土地财政的直接依赖, 消除房地产商的供给垄断, 建立健全
的房地产市场化运行机制, 才能真正实现房地产市场稳定发展。
[ 关键词] 行为因素; 主体行为; 正反馈升值预期; 房地产市场稳定
Subject Behavior, Expectation Formation and Stability in Real Estate Market
H e Jing to ng
Xu Lu
( I nstitute of E conomics, N ankai Univer sity , T ianj in 300071, China)
Abstract: Based on the theory of behavioral economics, a study on market subject decision
making
process and operating mechanism of our real estate market is carried out theoretically and empirically.
The result show s that behaviors of government, real estate developers and residents are significantly af
fected by some behavior factors such as money illusion, overconfidence, one
sided information and mo
nopoly supply, w hich continue to push up the appreciation expectations of the real estate, and the behav
iors are streng thened when the ex es true. The appreciation expectation continues to increase
for this positive feedback process, which is also the important driving force of the sustained high growth
of real estate market in China. Estimated results show that 43. 42% of the estate turnover growth results
from these behavior factors. T he neglect of behavior factors is the fundamental reason w hy our control
policies impact little on real estate market in recent years. In co nclusion, several policies, including
the reduction of frequent publicatio n o f one
sided infor mation, the chang e o f the direct depend
ence on land finance of lo cal go vernm ent and the elim