人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支影响的实证研究.pdf

文档介绍：摘要

汇率是一国参与对外贸易和对外经济活动时最重要的一个价格指标现代的
汇率概念不仅是指国与国之间货币的兑换比例而且也代表了国与国之间商品的
相对价格贸易品与非贸易品相对价格等关系汇率变动对贸易收支有着重要的
影响许多国家都希望通过汇率的调整来改善贸易收支汇率变动对贸易收支的
影响研究一直是经济研究中很重要的一个部分
本文首先介绍了人民币汇率变动的历史然后介绍了相关的基本概念和理
论在这个基础上本文重点利用定量分析方法研究汇率变动对中美贸易中国对
外贸易的影响定量分析方法的基础是进出口的需求方程定量分析方法利用了
现代计量经济学方法包括时间序列的平稳性检验 ADF 方法格兰杰因果关
系检验利用最小二乘法的回归分析
通过实证研究本文得到如下结论
关系非常密切名义汇率的变动也有很大影响
GDP 密切相关实际汇率的影响比较小
美国 GDP 变动的影响但中国 GDP 变动的影响超过其他两个变量的作用
出口总额和世界 GDP 密切相关 GDP 变动名义汇率实
际汇率变动都相关 GDP 变动的影响 GDP 增长越
快则顺差越大

关键词人民币汇率汇率变动中美进出口中国贸易收支






I
ABSTRACT
Exchange rate is the most prehensive price index used in
international economy transaction. Modern exchange rate is not only the price of
currency but also the price modity the price of modity to not-trade
commodity. Exchange rate has important impact on trade flows many country want to
use exchange rate for improving trade balance. The study on exchange rate is very
important part of economy study.
This article introduces the history of RMB exchange rate fluctuation firstly
then introduces the relative concepts and theory. The article mainly uses quantitative
methods to study the relation on RMB exchange rate and China’s trade. The
quantitative methods base on Export/Import Need Equation. The quantitative methods
use modern quantitative economy methods including Unit Root Test of Series
Statistics(ADF methods) Granger Causality Test of Group Statistics and Estimate
Equation based on Least Squares.
This article concludes the results based empirical study 1. China-US export has
close relation to US GDP nominal exchange rate fluctuations also have important
impacts to export 2. China-US import has close relation to China GDP real exchange
rate fluctuations have little impacts to import 3. China-US trade flows has close
relation to exchange rate deviation China GDP and US GDP but China GDP has the
most import