文档介绍：摘要
从上世纪90年代以来逐年累积的贸易顺差令我国面临F1益增多的国际贸易
摩擦同时面对着巨大的人民币升值压力。影响贸易收支平衡的因素十分复杂,因
素繁多。学者们在关于贸易收支的课题方面做过大量的研究,但仍无定论。原因
在于以前的研究大都从汇率或者贸易结构等角度出发,忽略了利率在贸易收支中
扮演的关键角色。
本文从真实利率变动对贸易收支影响的角度出发,在前人所有的理论及研究
基础上,发现真实利率对贸易收支有着直接和间接的影响。本文通过搜集1996
年至2009年的月度的变量数据,采用VAR模型检验方法,通过Johansen协整检
验模型以及误差修正模型来对贸易收支和真实利率进行实证分析。鉴于现实经济
中汇率在贸易收支中扮演着越来越重要的角色,本文也引进了有效汇率作为其中
一个变量给以引进。这也是本文的新颖支出。
在实证分析中发现贸易收支、真实利率和有效汇率之间存在着协整关系,统
计结果显著。结果表明真实利率对贸易收支存在正向较大的影响。在现实经济中
具有政策指导意义。
关键词:真实利率,协整检验,

误差修正模型
Abstract
In 1 990s of the last century,because of the accumulated trade surplus every year,
"country is facing growing international trade friction
and facing tremendous
pressure of
RMB that affect the
trade balance

ale

very
form the economic alea do

a
lot research

Oil
the
subject
of
trade balance,but the results ale
not take
reasons ale simple,most previous
studies the exchange rate

or
trade

structure
from the
point
of view,ignoring the
interea

rate

plays

a
key role in the trade
balance.
In this paper,the point of view is real imerest
rate
changes on trade all
previous theoretical and research basis,shows that real interest

rate on
the trade
balance has

a
direct and indirect

paper has
collected monthly variable
data
from
1 996 to
2009,and

using
VAR model
checking method,Johansen
co-integration

test
and the

error
cofrection
model
to test the real interest

rate on
the
trade balance
and
the empirical view of the exchange

rate

play
an
increasingly important role in the real trade balance economy,effective
exchange

rate
also be introduced

as one
of the variables in the paper.
In the
empirical

analysis,we
found
the trade balance,real interest rates
and
the
effective exchange rate have

a

co-integration relationship
and