文档介绍：青海省生态足迹的测算与趋势预测
张承亮
摘要
生态足迹是用生产性土地面积来度量一个确定人口或经济规模的资源消费或消纳废弃物的地域空间。通过生态足迹的比较可以定量的判断某一国家或地区目前可持续发展的状态,以便对未来人类生存和社会经济发展做出科学规划和建议。青海省由于其特殊的地理条件和生态环境,对青海省的可持续发展进行定量研究便显的尤为重要。基于此,论文利用生态足迹模型对青海省的生态足迹进行了测算和分析。论文首先对生态足迹理论的产生和发展进行了回顾,对生态足迹的概念进行了明确的界定。进而对生态足迹传统计算模型和投入产出模型进行了介绍,详细说明了各种模型的建模原理、步骤和计算方法。基于两种模型,论文对1985—2008年青海省的生态足迹进行了测算,数据显示: hm2 /人。通过结合两种模型计算结果的差异性原因进行了分析,结果表明投入产出模型在数据的全面性和参数的准确性上更有优势,因而投入产出模型可以对传统模型进行修正。最后,论文基于两种模型的计算结果对青海省的用地结构、产业结构、资源利用效率和生态效率等进行了的分析,认为青海省应该通过控制人口数量、调整和优化产业结构、引导人们转向低碳生活等政策措施来优化青海省的生态足迹。
关键词:生态足迹,可持续发展,投入产出模型
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT CALCULATION AND PREDICTION OF QINGHAI PROVINCE
Abstract
Ecological footprint is a guage which definite population, resource consumption of economicial scale or dissolve region space of the offal to measure the productive land area. Ecological footprint can quantitative judge the sustainable development state of one country or area, in order to plan and propose the human survival and social economic development in the future scientifically. As the special geographical condition and ecological environment of Qinghai Province, it is particularly important that the sustainable development of Qinghai Province carries on quantitative research. Because of this, the thesis utilizes the ecological footprint model to calculate and analyze the ecological footprint in Qinghai Province. At first, the thesis has retrospected formation and development of the ecological footprint theories, and make clear definition to the concept of the ecological footprint. The paper introduce the calculate model of the traditional ecological footprint and the model of input and output,and has explained the principles of models , the step puting technology of various models explicitly. On the basis of two kinds of models, the paper has calculated the ecological footprint in Qinghai Province of 1985-2008 years,the data reveals that the per capita ecological footprint was hm2/ person in Qinghai Province of