文档介绍：(officiallytheRepublicofKorea)andNorthKorea(officiallytheDemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKorea).GiventhesubstantialuncertaintiesaboutKorea’sfuture,ur,,analyzesthem,-ductedwithintheInternationalSecurityandDefensePolicyCenteroftheRANDNationalSecurityResearchDivision(NSRD).NSRDcon-ductsresearchandanalysisfortheOfficeoftheSecretaryofDefense,theJointStaff,mands,thedefenseagen-cies,theNavy,theMarineCorps,,,alliedforeigngovernments,,seed/ndri/centers/isdporcontactthedirector(contactinformationisprovidedonthewebpage).iiiPreface iiiTables viiSummary ixAcknowledgments xiiiAbbreviations xvCHAPTERONEIntroduction 1WhatDoesUnificationMean? 2ThePurposeofThisReport 3Methodology 8OrganizationofThisReport 12CHAPTERTWOPotentialUnificationChallenges 13NorthKoreanWeaponsofMassDestruction 14OtherNorthKoreanMilitaryForces 16ReducedSizeandReadinessoftheActive-DutyROKArmy 18InadequateTrainingofROKArmyReserveForces 21InadequateROKPlanningforaReplacementGovernmentinNorthKorea 22ChineseInterventioninNorthKorea 23Conclusions 27vCHAPTERTHREEUnificationPathsResultingfromWar 29InitiatingEventsforWar-RelatedPathstoUnification 30TheWar-RelatedPaths:TheEarlyStagesofWarfare 33War:DPRKConquestPath 36War:ROK-—CostlyVictory,ContestedPeacePath 38War:ImprovedROK-—ReducedCostsofVictory,ImprovedPostconflictStabilityPath 40ConclusionsonWar-RelatedPathstoUnification 45CHAPTERFOURUnificationPathsResultingfromRegimeCollapse 47DPRKCollapse:InterventionPath 48DPRKCollapse:NegotiationPath 51ConclusionsonPathstoUnificationResultingfro