文档介绍：摘 要
我国从 2009 年开始,地方融资平台的融资规模快速扩大,信用风险逐渐累积,并成为了地方融资平台最突出的风险隐患。本文的目的在于研究地方融资平台的信用风险,以加强信用风险管理,确保地方融资平台健康有序运行。本文从信用风险这一微观角度出发,通过定性和定量分析的方法,对地方融资平台信用风险进行深入研究,希望为地方融资平台信用风险的科学管理提供有益参考。
本文分析了地方融资平台现状及地方融资平台信用风险的表现形式,得出结论:1、地方融资平台数量增长过快;2、土地出让收入占地方财政收入的比例较大,导致地方融资平台信用风险容易受到房地产市场影响;3、地方融资平台公司的债务率过高;4、地方融资平台融资结构中银行贷款占比过大,信用风险集中;5、地方融资平台信用风险管理存在缺陷。
KMV 模型基于期权定价思想,通过计算地方财政收入的增长率和波动率, 进而算出违约距离和预期违约率。经计算,上海、北京的地方融资平台贷款预期违约率最低,发达省份浙江、广东相对较小,西部省市宁夏和重庆的预期违约率次之,中部省份湖北的预期违约率最高。
因此,需要完善资本市场,拓宽地方融资平台融资方式;完善地方融资平台信息披露机制,加强监管;推进市场化进程,逐渐摆脱对地方财政的过度依赖; 完善地方融资平台信用风险测量及管理方法。
关键词:地方融资平台,信用风险,KMV 模型
Abstract
From the beginning of 2009, the scale of local financing platform has rapid expansed , the gradual accumulation of credit risk e the most prominent risk of a local government investment and financing platform. Therefore, this thesis aims to study the credit risk of local financing platform to strengthen credit risk management to ensure the orderly operation of local financing platform. Through qualitative and
quantitative analysis of the credit risk,it provides reference for local financing
platform for the scientific management of credit risk.
This thesis analyzes the current situation of local financing platform and the performance of local government financing platform for credit risk, concluded: 1, rapid growth in the number of local financing platform; 2, land transfer revenues accounted for a larger proportion of local revenue, resulting in local financing platform credit risk vulnerable to the real estate market; 3, local financing platform for pany's debt ratio is too high; 4, the financing structure of local financing platform is too single; 5, credit risk management of local financing platform is flawed .
KMV model is based on option pricing model ideas by calculating growth rates and the volatility of local revenue, and then calculate the distance to default and expected default rates. Shanghai, Beijings’ expected default rates are lowest, developed provinces’ expected