购买力平价理论对人民币汇率升值的适用性分析.doc

文档介绍：《经济评论》2008年第1 期
购买力平价理论对人民币汇率升值的适用性分析
范爱军韩青
(山东大学经济学院山东济南 250100)
摘要:在人民币升值的外在压力中,有一种理由是认为人民币汇率已大幅偏离了购买力平价。但是偏离购买力平价的汇率需要调整这一命题的真伪取决于购买力平价理论对一国的适用性,这种适用性的常用检验方法有两种:实际汇率的平稳性检验和名义汇率与的协整检验,本文的分析认为前者的严谨性优于后者。尽管如此,两种方法均不支持购买力平价对于人民币汇率的适用性。原因除了购买力平价自身的局限外,更重要的在于中国的汇率——价格传导机制不够通畅。既然购买力平价在中价的偏离就不能构成人民币升值的理由。
关键词:购买力平价; 人民币汇率; 升值; 适用性
Analysis of the Applicability of Purchasing Power Parity to the RMB Appreciation
FAN Ai-jun HAN Qing
(School of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100)
Abstract: Among the pressure of RMB’s appreciation, there’s one reason that RMB’s exchange rate has greatly deviated from its Purchasing Power Parity. However, whether the fact that deviated exchange rate from its PPP should be adjusted stands a chance to be true depends on the applicability of the PPP theory to the specific country. Usually there are two mainly used methods for such applicability test: stationary test of the real exchange rate and the cointegration test of nominal exchange rate as well as the inward and outward price level, this paper holds that the former exhibits a better strictness. Nevertheless, neither method supports the applicability of the PPP to RMB’s exchange rate. Besides the limitations of PPP itself, the reason lies more importantly in the non-expedite exchange rate-price mechanism. Since the PPP doesn’t hold to be true in China, the deviation of RMB’s exchange rate from its PPP can not be constituted as the reason of RMB’s appreciation.
Key Words: Purchasing Power Parity; RMB Exchange Rate; Appreciation;
Applicability
近年来在关于人民币升值幅度的大讨论中价理论,认定人民币币值目前被严重低估,并公开要求中。针对这一问题,本文应用较为严谨的实证分析,从所得结果的矛盾性和购买力平价理论的应用条件等多个不同方面,提出了购买力平价理论对人民币汇率适用性的局限性,并重点分析了价检验中所存在的问题,由此得出以购买力平价为依据要求人民币大幅度升值是缺乏科学根据的。
一、相关研究的简要回顾
自从瑞典经济学家古斯塔夫&#183;卡塞尔在总结前人理论的基础上于1916年提出并于1922年完善了购买力平价理论后,有关价作为货币转换因子进行各国间的GDP比较。由于名义汇率经常随经济基本面的变化发生较大幅度的波动,因此以购买力平价进行换算就具有了一定的参考价值。<br价与汇率的关系做出过有益的探讨。Frankel(198