文档介绍：Risk-Based Reliability Analysis and Generic Principles
for Risk Reduction
by Michael T. Todinov
· ISBN: 0080447287
· Publisher: Elsevier Science & Technology Books
· Pub. Date: December 2006
FM- 4/10/2006 12: 56 Page xix
PREFACE
For a long time, the conventional reliability analyses have been oriented
towards selecting the more reliable system and upied with maxi-
mising the reliability of systems. On the basis of counterexamples, we
demonstrate that selecting the more reliable system does not necessarily
mean selecting the system with the smaller losses from failures! As a result,
reliability analyses should necessarily be risk-based, linked with the losses
from failures.
Accordingly, a theoretical framework, models and algorithms are pre-
sented which form the foundations of the risk-based reliability analysis –
a reliability analysis linked with the losses from failures. An underlying
theme in the book is the basic principle for a risk-based design: the larger
the cost of failure associated with ponent, the larger its minimum
necessary reliability level. Even ponents should be designed
to different reliability levels if their failures are associated with different
losses.
According to a classical definition, the risk of failure is a product of the
probability of failure and the cost given failure. This risk measure however,
cannot describe the risk of losses exceeding a maximum acceptable limit.
As an alternative, an aggregated risk measure based on the cumulative dis-
tribution of the potential losses is introduced and the theoretical framework
for risk analysis based on the concept potential losses is developed. This
risk measure incorporates the uncertainty associated with the exposure to
losses and the uncertainty in the consequences given the exposure. His-
torical data related to the loss given failure can only be used to determine
the distribution of the conditional loss