文档介绍：Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban
Policy
UC Berkeley
Peer Reviewed
Title:
Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles
Author:
Quigley, John M., University of California, Berkeley
Publication Date:
05-14-2002
Series:
Working Papers
Publication Info:
Working Papers, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Institute of Business and
Economic Research, UC Berkeley
Permalink:
/uc/item/58c6v2kx
Additional Info:
BPHUP working paper # W99-009
Keywords:
real estate prices, economic cycles
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Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles 1
INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE REVIEW
1999 Vol. 2 No 1: pp. 1 - 20
Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles
John M. Quigley*
University of California, Berkeley, USA or ******@.
Keywords
Real Estate Prices, Economic Cycles.
Introduction
Studies of the linkages between real estate prices and general economic
conditions have an extensive history, beginning with tabulations suggesting
the ways in which long swings in construction and price development were
synchronized with long swings in aggregate economic activity (Gottlieb,
1976). Recent studies have explored the implications of alternative
representations of investor expectations upon real estate construction and
the cyclical behavior of housing prices and the rents for non-residential
properties. These models trace through the effects upon supplier and
demander behavior of differing price expectations in the real estate market.
The earliest models tease out the dynamic paths of housing prices and
commercial rents which arise from exogenous expectations about the future
course of prices. More sophisticated models assume that households and
firms have adaptive expectations about the future, assuming, for example,
myopic beha