文档介绍：·196· 价值工程
决策树法在某化工厂扩能改造决策中的应用
Policy-making of A Chemical Plant Capacity Expansion Based on Decision Tree Method
赵晶英 Zhao Jingying;王大成 Wang Dacheng;吴小东 Wu Xiaodong
(广东石油化工学院机电工程学院,茂名 525000)
(College of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering,Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology,Maoming 525000,China)
摘要:基于某化工厂扩能改造的实际需求,提出改造局部工艺来提高产量、大改造来提高产量、解决关键瓶颈设备来提高产量三个备选方
案。应用决策树法对备选方案进行分析计算,三个备选方案的益损期望值分别为 万元、 万元、 万元,解决关键瓶颈设备来
提高产量为最佳方案。
Abstract: Based on a chemical plant's actual demand of capacity expansion, three alternative plans were put forward that transform partial craft to
increase production, a large renovation to raise output, solve key bottleneck equipment to enhance output. Alternative plans were analyzed and calculated
by decision tree method, the expected values of three alternative plans respectively are million Yuan, million Yuan and million
Yuan, the plan of solve key bottleneck equipment to enhance output is the best plan.
关键词:扩能改造;决策;化工生产;决策树法
Key words: capacity expansion;policy-making;the chemical production;decision tree
中图分类号: 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1006-4311(2012)16-0196-02
0 引言方案。①改造局部工艺来提高产量(下称方案一):参考目前国内外
化工生产装置具有系统性强的特点,因为化工生产装置大部分先进的生产工艺过程,通过对流程进行优化,压缩研磨时间,可以提
是在连续状态下工作,一个环节变量变更或停产会对整个流程造成高改性沥青的产量,由当前的 4 万吨/年提高到 万吨/年。②大
很大影响[1];有的装置虽然是间歇性生产,一台装置出问题后影响要改造来提高产量(下称方案二