文档介绍：Source of bubble
前言:当面粉被垄断的时候,面包的价格不可能正常,中国的地产市场就是如此,如果只分析散户的行为,不考虑庄家的行为,是无法看穿泡沫的。
由于内容基本为原创的原因,不保证正确性。作者:NUDT,****
Introduction: When the flour is monopolized, regular is impossible for the price of bread,so is the market for landed property in China , if you only analyze the behavior of individual investors without the behavior of the dealer. The insight to bubble is impossblie.
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货币供应:外汇占款在十年内急剧增长,央行资产负债表膨胀,基础货币被动增发
货币政策在金融危机后的彻底转向。
危险的地方政府投融资平台债务
内外交困的民间产业资本
分税制改革后“土地财政”的兴起和土地供应的垄断
户籍与房产的绑定,城市化
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与美联储不同,中国的央行属于政府部门,资产负债表上没有“所有人权益”这一项,故资产与负债等同。
由于外汇增长过快,央行的资产负债表在十年内增长了大约700%
People‘s Bank of ChinaDiffer is differ with Federal Reserve,It is a department of central you can not see stockholder’s equity in its balance sheet. Assets is equal to liabilities
Because of the growth of the foreign currency, size of central bank's balance sheet has been growing in a decade by about seven times
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流动性过剩的压力
外汇激增对货币创造有什么压力呢?举个简单的例子,你出口了一批货物,获得100万美元,你拿着这100万美元去找央行兑汇,央行外汇资产增加100万美元,同时央行找给你667万人民币,基础货币供应增加667万人民币,按09年的货币乘数()算,(假定央行不用证券暂时回收基础货币)。
What is the effect of the growth of foreign currency to money creation? For example, You export a number modities and received $ 1,000,000. You take that $ 1,000,000 to the central bank for exchange. Central Bank’s foreign currency assets increased by $ 1,000,000 and Central Band give you million at the same other word,the supply of basic money increased by million increased by 30 million yuan
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尽管央行一直在用公开市场操作和准备金手段控制基础货币供给和货币乘数的大小,但由于资产负债表的规模太大,作用十分有限
Although the central bank has been using open market operations to control base money supply,using reserve against deposit control the size of the money multip