文档介绍：EVALUATING FORECASTING ALGORITHMS AND STOCKING LEVEL
STRATEGIES USING DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION
Gregory R. Clay Frank Grange
Perot Systems Corporation Perot Systems Corporation
100 E. Big Beaver Road, Suite 400 5990 Greenwood Plaza Blvd., Suite 350
Troy, Michigan 48083 . Englewood, CO 80111 .
ABSTRACT Dealers operate businesses independent from the
manufacturer, and from the manufacturer’s service parts
The part division of a major automobile manufacturer is division. From over 50 different third-party vendors,
analyzing methods of managing the supply chain of dealers purchase in-house business systems (IHBS) that
automotive service parts. That analysis includes parts perform accounting, sales support, vehicle service
flowing from its warehouses to its dealers, and from dealer support, and parts inventory support functions. The
to dealer. This paper describes the use of simulation to IHBS embeds mon algorithms for parts sales
evaluate various part forecasting and level setting strategies forecasting options (., exponential smoothing vs.
for automobile dealer part inventories, and the impact that moving average forecast) and inventory decisions; the
implementing mon strategy across a set of dealers dealer parts manager can manipulate parameters of those
could have on overall inventory levels. algorithms (., safety stock levels). These same s