文档介绍：History Staff
Center for the Study of Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
1999
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
Table of Contents
● Author's Preface
● Foreword by Douglas MacEachin
● Introduction by Jack Davis
● PART I--OUR MENTAL
MACHINERY
● Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
● Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't
We See What Is There to Be Seen?
● Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We
Remember What We Know?
● PART II--TOOLS FOR
THINKING
● Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical
Judgment: Transcending the Limits
of plete Information
● Chapter 5: Do You Really Need
More Information?
● Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
● Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical
Problems
● Chapter 8: Analysis peting
Hypotheses
● PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES
● Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive
Biases?
● Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of
Evidence
● Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of
Cause and Effect
● Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating
Probabilities
● Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in
Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
● PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
● Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence
Analysis
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Center for the Study of Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
1999
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author's Preface
This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and
additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate
of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the munity
journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively
timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis.
The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how
people process information to make judgments on plete and ambiguous
information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to
intelligence