文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
开放经济条件下的最优货币政策规则
姓名:唐勇
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:数量经济学
指导教师:孙焱林
20050511
摘要

考虑小国开放经济体在资本完全流动条件下应该实行什么样的货币政策呢
首先究竟应该采用规则还是相机抉择的货币政策呢这篇文章用博弈论方法
分析了规则和声誉在货币政策中的作用认为中央银行在制定货币政策时一定要
考虑到公众对通货膨胀的预期如果中央银行做出的决策能被公众事先预期到那
么规则的货币政策将是最好的选择如果中央银行不只是关心短期内的效用应该
在长期内建立起在公众心目中的声誉并尽可能维护这种声誉
其次本文提出货币政策规则应该以汇率作为中间目标并认为这样做不仅满
足中间目标所应该具有的可控性可预测性和主要的指示器三个要求而且还能避
免货币政策传导受阻避免汇率超调现象避免过量的国际资本投机行为
再次考虑到新兴市场经济体与小型开放经济体具有相类似的经济环境通过
对新兴市场经济体汇率制度的选择的讨论本文建议采用一种规则的汇率制度
然后根据小型开放经济体宏观经济系统的运行在理性预期前瞻性宏观经济
模型的框架下设定了一个资本完全流动假定下的最优货币政策规则这个规则以
汇率而不是通常的利率为货币政策的中间目标并论述了这个规则不仅具有一般的
政策规则所具有的优良性质而起还具有简单规则和包含滞后的良好性质
最后使用经济的动态学描述了对这个规则的承诺所导致的动态均衡调整过程

关键词前瞻性理性预期货币政策规则
Abstract

What ary policy rules should be implemented in a small open economy under
the condition of perfect capital flow?
First, the question is that should rules or discretion in ary policy be carried out?
This paper analyzed that the rules and reputation which plays an important role in the
ary policy in the use of game theory and that the public’s expectation to inflation
should be considered by central bank when ary policy is established. If the decisions
that the central bank made can be expected by the public in advance, the rules are the best
choice. If the central bank cares more utility in long terms, the reputation in the public’s
eyes should be set up and be maintained to the greatest extent.
Secondly, exchange rates should be adopted as the intermediate target of ary
policy, which not only satisfy the three requirements------controllability, predictability, and
the leading indicator that any classic intermediate targets there have but also can avoid the
ary transmission mechanism being blocked, the exchange rate being overshooted
and the international capital being over speculated.
Thirdly, through discussing the choice of exchange rate systems in the emerging
marketing economies which have the similar circumstances to the small open economies,
a kind of