文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
我国外汇储备适度规模探析
姓名:李锋
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:西方经济学
指导教师:张玉英
20050426
摘要
外汇储备是国际货币体系的核心也是国际金融领域的重要问题它关系到各国
调节国际收支和稳定货币汇率的能力在开放经济条件下外汇储备是考察一国对外
经济关系的重要指标它既是宏观经济运行结果的体现又是对宏观经济进行调控的
重要手段随着我国经济金融对外开放程度的提高外汇储备的增长加快与国内经济
运行之间的协调成为了一个较为棘手的问题
有鉴于此本文以外汇储备规模的基本理论为依据对影响我国外汇储备的需求
因素和供给因素进行了理论的分析并以外汇储备的变化量(ΔFOREX)作为应变量
引入了净出口(NEXPORT) 国际收支差额(BOP) 人民币汇率变化(ΔR) 外债变化
(ΔFDEBT) 外汇储备机会成本(OC) 外商直接投资(ΔFDI) 对外融资(ΔFF)等作为自
变量建立模型用以检验上述因素对我国外汇储备规模增长的影响程度
在前文分析的基础上本文建立了度量我国外汇储备适度规模的模型该模型取
出口额经济的开放程度外债的负担状况外商直接投资国内生产总值作为自变
量根据丰富的历史数据计算出了我国 1982 年至 2002 年二十年间外汇储备规模的理
论值然后以之与同期我国外汇储备的实际值进行比较
结果表明二十年来我国外汇储备确实发生了大规模的增长且近几年来增长速
度较大外汇储备规模的实际值一直围绕其适度值波动但波幅较小也就是说这
二十年来我国外汇储备规模的增长是较为合理的

关键词外汇储备适度规模需求分析
I
Abstract
Foreign exchange reserve (FR) is the core of the international ary system and of
vital importance in the area of international financial research. It concerns the governments'
ability of adjusting balance of payment and stabilizing exchange rate. In the open economic
environment, FR is a key index to inspect international economy for a country or district; it
is not only an embodiment of macroeconomic operating, but also an important measure for
macroeconomic adjusting and controlling. With the economic opening expanding in the
world, it es an intractable problem that how the domestic economic operating assorts
with the speeding up of FR increase.
On the basis of FR scale theory, this paper analyses theoretically the FR increase in
China about the supply and demand factors, and by introducing the dependent variable FR
change, and the independent variables such Export, Balance of Payment, Exchange
Rate Fluctuation, Foreign Debt Change, Opportunity Cost, Foreign Direct Investment and
Foreign Finance, this paper establishes a model to test the effect on FR increase by these
variables.
In the next part, this paper establishes another model to calculate the moderate FR
scale between 1982 and 2002 in China according to lar