文档介绍：湘潭大学
硕士学位论文
基于系统动力学的城市休闲分析——以长沙市为例
姓名:张普成
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:旅游管理
指导教师:阎友兵
20080501
摘要
随着经济的发展,生活水平的提高,人们越来越重视休闲环境的改善,城市休闲的
发展问题也就引起了各级政府的广泛关注,引发了人们极大的研究热情。但目前的研究
成果存在研究内容零散而不系统、研究方法偏重于定性、研究结果偏重于理论而缺乏可
操作性等不足。本文综合运用经济学、统计学、系统动力学及实证分析等理论与方法,
重点研究了城市休闲系统的结构、组成要素、系统功能、运行机制、因果关系模型、主
要反馈回路和主要影响因素等问题,力求为我提供科学
的理论依据和可行的操作方法。
本文首先对现有城市休闲研究成果进行总结,指出城市休闲研究需结合定量分析的
必要性及可行性,介绍了系统动力学理论及其应用于城市休闲系统的适宜性;其次,构
建了 4 个城市休闲系统子系统,阐述了 4 个子系统之间的关系,以及子系统对城市休闲
系统的影响,建立系统因果关系模型图,确定影响各子系统的数学变量;第三,根据正
负相关关系确定各变量之间的关系及数学公式;最后,以长沙市为对象,对城市休闲系
统仿真模型进行模拟与检验,对该系统运行结果进行分析与预测,并有针对性地对长沙
市城市休闲的发展方向提出进一步改进的建议。

关键词: 城市休闲;系统动力学;系统分析;长沙市

I
Abstract
With the development of economy and the improvement of city life, more and more
people put their eyes on improvement of leisure environment, how to develop city leisure
arouses the attention of every city government. More and more scholars put their enthusiasms
into this study. However, the present research results exist all kinds of deficiencies, such as
the research content is scattered but systematic, the research method stresses in quality and
the results stress in theory but lack practice ect. We synthetically use the theory and the
method, such as economic analysis, statistics analysis, system analysis and real diagnosis
analysis ect., emphasize on the feasibility and necessity of analysising and researching on the
system’s structure, composition factor, system’s function, running mechanism, causal relation
model, main feed back cycles and the main restriction factors. We make efforts to provide
scientific theory basis and the suitable operating procedure of analysising city leisure in our
country. Firstly, the article starts with the multianalysis on the research results currently,
proves the necessity and the feasibility of using system method and also analyzes the
particularity and the possibly problems and then propose the corresponding countermeasures.
After that, we construc