文档介绍：风险管理软件CrystalBall操作指南Monte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBall®TorunasimulationusingCrystalBall®:(.,profit)intermsoftheinputs(randomornot).Forrandominputs,—.,randomvariablesDefinewhichcellsarerandom,—.,outputorperformancemeasureDefinewhichcell(s)youareinterestedinforecasting(typicallytheperformancemeasure,.,profit).,choose“SensitivityAnalysis”-runthesimulation,youshould“reset”thesimulation(clickonthe“ResetSimulation”buttononthetoolbarorintheRunmenu)(orduring)(frequencychart,cumulativechart,statistics,percentiles,sensitivityanalysis,andtrendchart).:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast TrendAssumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window ChartWaltonBookstoreSimulationwithCrystalBall®RecalltheWaltonBookstoreexample:ItisAugust,andtheymustdecidehowmanyofnextyear’$andissoldfor$,allunsoldcalendarsarereturnedtothepublisherforarefundof$(discreteuniform).Demand =d~Uniform[100,300]OrderQuantity =Q(decisionvariable)Revenue =$10*Min(Q,d)Cost =$*QRefund =$*Max(Q–d,0)Profit =Revenue–Cost+RefundStep#1(SetupSpreadsheet)WaltonBookstoreSimulationwithCrystalBall®Step#2(DefineAssumptions—.,randomvariables)Selectthecellthatcontainstherandomvariable(B17)—colorcode(blue):andclickonthe“DefineAssumptions”buttonintoolbar(orintheCellmenu):Selecttypeofdistribution:Provideparametersofdistributions:Wal