文档介绍：Energy Economics 24 (2002) 557–576
World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and
supply model
Noureddine Krichene*
International ary Fund, 700, 19 Street, Washington, DC 20431, USA
Abstract
This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918–
1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and
supply elasticities during 1918–1973 and 1973–1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during
the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market
structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however,
demand e elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The
elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility
in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies.
ᮊ 2002 Elsevier Science . All rights reserved.
JEL classifications: C320; Q410
Keywords: Crude oil; Natural gas; Prices; Output; Unit roots; Demand and supply elasticities
1. Introduction
This paper examines the world markets for crude oil and natural gas over 1918–
1999, thereby covering the periods prior to and following the oil shock that occurred
in 1973. The study of a truncated period, say 1973–1999, would not enable us to
uncover features of the oil and gas markets that prevailed prior to 1973 and that are
essential for analyzing the market equilibria that existed thereafter. The paper shows
*Tel.: q1-202-623-7015; fax: q1-202-623-5320.
E-mail address: nkrichene@ (N. Krichene).
0140-9883/02/$ - see front matter ᮊ 2002 Elsevier Science . All rights reserved.
PII: S0140-9883Ž 02. 00061-0
558 N. Krichene / Energy Economics 24 (2002) 557–576
that in 1973 the oil and gas markets moved from petitive system to a cartel
structure, with profound implications for the structure of the demand and supply
model.
The paper studies the time-series prop