文档介绍：Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered
APS -Forum on Physics & Society
By
Christopher Monckton
[202] 288-5699
SPPI Reprint Series
Climate sensitivity reconsidered
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Carie, Rannoch, PH17 2QJ
monckton@
Abstract
HE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions probably
Tcaused more than half of the “global warming” of the past 50 years and would cause further rapid warming. However,
global mean surface temperature TS has not risen since 1998 and may have fallen since late 2001. The present analysis
suggests that the failure of the ’s models to predict this and many other climatic phenomena arises from defects in its
evaluation of the three factors whose product is climate sensitivity:
1) Radiative forcing ΔF;
2) The no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter κ; and
3) The feedback multiplier f.
Some reasons why the ’s estimates may be excessive and unsafe are explained. More importantly, the conclusion is
that, perhaps, there is no “climate crisis”, and that currently-fashionable efforts by governments to reduce anthropogenic
CO2 emissions are pointless, may be ill-conceived, and could even be harmful.
The context
LOBALLY-AVERAGED land and sea surface absolute temperature TS has not risen since 1998
G(Hadley Center; US National Climatic Data Center; University of Alabama at Huntsville; etc.). For
almost seven years, TS may even have fallen (Figure 1). There may be no new peak until 2015
(Keenlyside et al., 2008).
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change () had not
projected this multidecadal stasis in “global warming”; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS
from 1940-1975; nor 50 years’ cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005);
nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007);
nor the onset, duration, or intensi