文档介绍：AGROMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
NEEDED TO PREPARE AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TO 21ST
CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE
VICTORINE PERARNAUD1, BERNARD SEGUIN2, ERIC MALEZIEUX3,
MICHEL DEQUE4 and DENIS LOUSTAU5
1Met´ eo-France-Direction´ de la Production, 42 avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, Cedex, France
E-mail: victorine.******@
2Institut National de Recherche Agronomique, Unite´ Agroclim Site Agroparc, domaine St-Paul,
84914 Avignon, Cedex 9, France
E-mail: ******@
3Centre de Cooperation´ Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement,´
Cirad-DS, TA 179/01, avenue Agropolis,
34398 Montpellier, Cedex 5, France
E-mail: ******@
4Met´ eo-France-´ Centre National de Recherches Met´ eorologiques,´ 42 avenue Coriolis,
31057 Toulouse, Cedex, France
E-mail: michel.******@
5Institut National de Recherche Agronomique, Recherches Forestieres,`
BP 45, 33611 , France
E-mail: Denis.******@
Abstract. The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century sup-
poses that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists,
soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the
variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or pheno-
logical data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes
in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate
predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general
circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrap-
olation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment
and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the