文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
论中石油海外投资战略风险与规避
姓名:陈婷
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:世界经济
指导教师:方齐云
2010-05
华中科技大学硕士学位论文
摘要
由于石油是保障世界各国经济发展、政治稳定、军事安全的重要战略物资,所
以在以前、当下以及今后 50 年内,石油都将是世界各国关注的焦点。我国经济发展
迅速,但国内石油探明储量以及产量较低,我国石油需求量和进口量连年攀升。为
了保证国内原油供应长期的稳定和充足,伴随企业自身的长远发展的需求,中石油
积极的实施海外投资战略。在海外投资的过程当中,石油企业将面临各种原因复杂、
不易控制的风险因素,例如政治风险、经济风险、文化风险和技术风险等。石油企
业需要采取积极有效的风险管理策略以消除风险因素、降低风险事件的发生几率以
及避免带来的损失,保证企业的经济利益和长远的发展。在实施海外战略的过程中,
企业还需根据自身的优势和劣势,进行合理的发展计划和战略安排,以实现投资最
合理化、利益的最大化。本文采用 PEST 分析法对中石油海外投资所面临的风险因素
作了讨论分析,并采用 AHP 层次分析法建立了风险综合评价模型,并对中石油在伊
拉克地区投资的 8 种主要风险因素进行了综合评价,利用风险因素的综合权重值进
行了重要程度的排序。结合风险分析结论和中石油自身的优势、劣势,本文提出了
海外投资风险管理的几点建议,对中石油开展风险管理、顺利的实施海外战略具有
一定的实际参考意义。

关键词:中石油,海外投资,风险管理,战略分析

I
华中科技大学硕士学位论文
Abstract
As the petroleum is the important strategic material which protects the world
economic development, political stability, military security, the petroleum was, is and will
in at least 50 years, be the focus of the whole world. As the development of economy, the
import amount of petroleum in China has been increasing. PC should put the
strategy of overseas investment into practice to develop itself into an international
corporation, and provide China a steady and abundance petroleum supply. The petroleum
corporation will face lots plicated risks in overseas investments as politic risk,
economic risk, society risk,technology risk and so on . An active and effective risk
management is needed to eliminate risk factors or reduce the probability of risk events to
reduce the damage brought by risks. Furthermore, the corporation needs to realize the
advantages and disadvantages of it in international realm to make reasonable decisions to
get more e. The PEST analysis has been chosen in this paper to analyze the risks of
overseas petroleum investment, and a risk assessment model based on AHP analysis has
been modeled to analyze the 8 major risks in the investment in Iraq. At last, some advises
based on the research results have been brought